基于双层代理模型的概率-区间潮流计算及灵敏度分析

doi:10.19595/j.cnki.1000-6753.tces.210171

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摘要随着电力系统中不确定量日益复杂,同时存在的随机与区间变量使得采用概率或区间潮流计算难以准确获取系统的运行状态。为此,提出一种基于双层代理模型的概率-区间潮流计算方法。该方法仅需较少次数的确定性潮流计算便可实现上、下层代理模型的构建,进而通过代理模型求解概率-区间潮流常规求解方法中所需要的大量确定性潮流计算,可实现输出变量的快速获取。此外,该文还提出了用于描述输出变量特征的灵敏度指标,并结合所提出的双层代理模型开展灵敏度分析,以量化输入区间变量对输出变量的影响程度。在IEEE 118节点系统中进行算例分析,通过与已有方法对比验证了所提方法的精确性和快速性,借助灵敏度分析可识别对输出变量具有显著影响的关键区间变量,有助于揭示系统运行状态与区间变量之间的关系。

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关键词 ：不确定潮流, 随机变量, 区间变量, 代理模型, 灵敏度分析

Abstract：With the increasing complexity of uncertainties in power systems, the co-existence of random and interval variables makes it challenging to accurately obtain systems’ operating states by using probabilistic or interval power flow calculations. To cope with this issue, this paper proposes a double layer surrogate method for probabilistic-interval power flow analysis. The proposed method can obtain the upper and lower surrogate models based on a few times deterministic power flow calculations. Then, the surrogate models are used to solve a large number of deterministic power flow calculations required in the conventional probabilistic-interval power flow method, and the probability boxes of output variables can be obtained with high efficiency. In addition, a sensitivity index is proposed to describe the characteristics of output variables, and the sensitivity analysis is performed using the proposed method to identify the importance of input interval variables that affect output variables. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method are validated on the IEEE 118-bus test system by comparing the existing methods. The sensitivity analysis can identify the key interval variables for the output variables and reveal the relationship between the operating states and the input interval variables.

Key words： Uncertain power flow random variable interval variable surrogate model sensitivity analysis

收稿日期: 2021-02-01

PACS:

TM744

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目（51977157）

通讯作者: 唐飞男,1982年生,副教授,博士生导师,研究方向为电力系统运行与控制。E-mail：tangfei@whu.edu.cn.com

作者简介: 王晨旭男,1996年生,博士研究生,研究方向为电力系统不确定性量化分析。E-mail：Chenxu_Wang2021@163.com

引用本文:

王晨旭, 唐飞, 刘涤尘, 高鑫, 周依希. 基于双层代理模型的概率-区间潮流计算及灵敏度分析[J]. 电工技术学报, 2022, 37(5): 1181-1193. Wang Chenxu, Tang Fei, Liu Dichen, Gao Xin, Zhou Yixi. Probabilistic-Interval Power Flow and Sensitivity Analysis Using Double Layer Surrogate Method. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2022, 37(5): 1181-1193.

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