The Medium and Long-Term Load Forecasting Based on Improved D-S Evidential Theory
Wu Yaowu1, Lou Suhua1, Lu Siyu1, Qiao Hui2, Kang Futian3
1. State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology Huazhong University of Science and Technology Wuhan 430074 China2. Hefei Electric Power Supply Bureau Hefei 230000 China 3. Beijing Electric Power Supply Bureau Beijing 100031 China
Abstract：A medium and long-term load forecasting model is proposed for power system, which is based on improved evidence theory. Evidential theory is able to integrate lots of information provided by different evidential source, which helps to make correct analysis and decisions. The combination rules of Dempster and Yager are used here to mix various basic forecasting methods. Expert advice is considered to be part of the model, so that the improved forecasting model is more meaningful practically, and the load forecasting accuracy has been improved apparently. Using this method to study one provincial grid in china, the results prove the validity of the method presented in this paper.
吴耀武, 娄素华, 卢斯煜, 乔惠, 康福填. 基于改进的D-S证据理论的中长期负荷预测方法[J]. 电工技术学报, 2012, 27(8): 157-162.
Wu Yaowu, Lou Suhua, Lu Siyu, Qiao Hui, Kang Futian. The Medium and Long-Term Load Forecasting Based on Improved D-S Evidential Theory. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2012, 27(8): 157-162.
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