基于运行可靠性理论的高可靠性供电路径搜索方法

doi:10.19595/j.cnki.1000-6753.tces.180784

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摘要对于电力系统中的重要用户,往往存在多条供电路径,以保证用户供电的可靠性水平。供电路径的可靠性受多种因素影响,如何在实时运行环境中评估不同供电路径的可靠性水平,并选择高可靠性供电路径是本文的研究重点。本文提出了改进的证据理论,考虑不同停运因素间的相关性,建立基于实测信息的合成多种停运因素的元件停运率模型,综合主观判断及客观数据支持对不同停运因素进行合成。在此基础之上,评估不同供电路径的实时可靠性水平,搜索高可靠性供电路径,以保证用户供电质量。算例分析表明,合成后的元件停运率模型可用于量化元件在多种停运因素共同作用下的停运率,在电力系统短期评估中定量分析电气元件及输电线路的实时可靠性水平,为提高重要用户的供电质量提供决策依据。

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关键词 ：电力系统, 运行可靠性, 证据理论, 供电路径

Abstract：For an important customer in the power system, there are more than one electricity supply path to maintain the supply reliability of the customer. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the real-time reliability of different supply paths considering various outage factors and locate the most reliable supply path. This paper proposes an improved evidence theory and presents a method to acquire the outage rate of electrical equipment considering various outage factors. The correlations between the various outage factors and critical outage factor are analyzed, and then an integrated outage rate model is established considering the subjective judgement and objective data based on the improved evidence theory. Subsequently, a method to find out the most reliable supply path is put forward. This outage rate model can be used to discover the potential outage components in the current operating condition, and also can be further used to search the higher reliability supply path for customers.

Key words： Power system operational reliability evidence theory supply path

收稿日期: 2018-05-07 出版日期: 2019-07-29

PACS:

TM726.3

基金资助:国家重点研发计划资助项目（2017YFB0903300）

通讯作者: 程林男,1973年生,长聘副教授,博士生导师,研究方向为电力系统可靠性评估、电力系统安全稳定分析和能源互联网规划设计等。E-mail:chenglin@tsinghua.edu.cn

作者简介: 刘满君男,1987年生,博士,助理研究员,研究方向为电力系统可靠性评估及连锁故障风险分析。E-mail:liumanjun@tsinghua.edu.cn

引用本文:

刘满君, 程林, 黄道姗, 叶小晖, 徐振华. 基于运行可靠性理论的高可靠性供电路径搜索方法[J]. 电工技术学报, 2019, 34(14): 3004-3011. Liu Manjun, Cheng Lin, Huang Daoshan, Ye Xiaohui, Xu Zhenhua. The High Reliability Supply Path Searching Method Based on the Operational Reliability Theory. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2019, 34(14): 3004-3011.

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