基于证据理论改进合成法则的电力系统安全检验综合判定算法

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摘要为了评价电力二次系统等级保护建设的达标与否, 本文采用证据理论对安全检验结果进行合成。在研究证据理论原始合成法则的过程中发现其对于高度冲突的证据的合成难以取得较好的效果, 而目前已有的多种改进方法效果也并不理想。因此, 本文提出了证据间冲突变化程度平均性的概念, 根据此概念设计了一种新型的证据理论合成法则, 并建立了一套综合判定改进算法。此算法能够较好地解决证据间的高度冲突并较为合理地减轻不确定性因素的影响, 从而得到较好的符合性判定结果, 能够高效准确地判断出目标系统实际建设情况与应满足的安全要求之间的符合性程度, 从而保障电力二次系统乃至一次系统的正常运行。

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	刘嘉
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关键词 ：证据理论, 合成法则, 电力系统, 安全检验, 综合判定

Abstract：To evaluate whether the construction of power secondary system classified protection reaches the standard, we take Dempster-Shafer theory to combine the security detection results. In the process of studying rule of combination, it is found that the original rule isn’t very effective in handling the evidence with high degree of conflict. There have been several improvement methods but their effects aren’t very ideal. Therefore, this paper proposes the concept of average of conflict’s volatility between evidence. We design a novel combination rule of Dempster-Shafer theory based on it and establish a modified algorithm of comprehensive decision. This algorithm can solve the problem of the high degree conflict between evidence and reduce the affection of uncertainty factors more effectively than others so that it can obtain a better compliance decision result and protect the running of power primary and secondary system.

Key words： Dempster-Shafer theory combination rule power system security detection comprehensive decision

收稿日期: 2011-03-03 出版日期: 2014-03-07

PACS:

TM732

基金资助:国家自然科学基金(U0835001), 工信部重大专项课题(2011ZX03002-005-01)和中国博士后科学基金(20100471762)资助项目

作者简介: 刘嘉男, 1984年生, 博士研究生, 研究方向为风险评估、等级保护和电力系统安全。徐国爱男, 1972年生, 副教授, 研究方向为信息安全管理、密码学和软件安全。

引用本文:

刘嘉, 徐国爱, 高洋, 杨义先, 程工. 基于证据理论改进合成法则的电力系统安全检验综合判定算法[J]. 电工技术学报, 2011, 26(7): 247-255. Liu Jia, Xu Guoai, Gao Yang, Yang Yixian, Cheng Gong. The Algorithm of Power System Security Detection Comprehensive Decision Based on Dempster-Shafer Theory Improved Combination Rule. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2011, 26(7): 247-255.

链接本文:

http://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/CN/Y2011/V26/I7/247

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