Abstract：To solve the problem of the uncertainty of charging sites and charging modes in forecasting electric vehicle spatial loads, a temporal and spatial distribution forecasting method based on origin-destination (OD) matrix and cloud model is proposed. First, through monitoring road traffic, the traffic attraction volume of the residential areas can be inversely deduced and the parking probability at different locations can then be dynamically predicted. Next, according to the characteristics of fast charge and slow charge, the conversion rules between users' psychology and fast charging probability can be formulated. Furthermore, the cloud model will be introduced in the rules to reflect the randomness and fuzziness of users' decision. Last, the load time curves of different charging sites will be analyzed and calculated via applying the Monte Carlo method, whose validity has been verified by data from an urban center city as an example. The calculation results show that the traffic volume changes apparently in different residential areas and different working days, and the charging load curve is significantly affected by the traffic volume change. The results also show that the fast charging load will fluctuate in a certain range randomly. Moreover, increasing the slow charge failure threshold will reduce the fast charging load peaks.
张晨彧, 丁明, 张晶晶. 基于交通出行矩阵的私家车充电负荷时空分布预测[J]. 电工技术学报, 2017, 32(1): 78-87.
Zhang Chenyu,Ding Ming,Zhang Jingjing. A Temporal and Spatial Distribution Forecasting of Private Car Charging Load Based on Origin-Destination Matrix. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2017, 32(1): 78-87.
[1] 李惠玲,白晓民.电动汽车充电对配电网的影响及对策[J].电力系统自动化,2011,35(17):38-43. Li Huiling,Bai Xiaomin.Impacts of electric vehicles charging on distribution grid[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2011,35(17):38-43. [2] 郑颖,孙近文,张冲,等.考虑电动汽车接入的配电系统静态电压稳定裕度研究[J].电工技术学报,2014,29(8):20-26. Zheng Ying,Sun Jinwen,Zhang Chong,et al.Study of voltage stability margin for the distribution network with electric vehicle integration[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2014,29(8):20-26. [3] 张谦,韩维健,俞集辉,等.电动汽车充电站仿真模型及其对电网谐波影响[J].电工技术学报,2012,27(2):159-164. Zhang Qian,Han Weijian,Yu Jihui,et al.Simulation model of electric vehicle charging station and the harmonic analysis on power grid[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2012,27(2):159-164. [4] Taylor J,Maitra A,Alexander M,et al.Evaluation of the impact of plug-in electric vehicle loading on distribution system operations[C]//2009 IEEE Power Energy Society General Meeting,2009:1-6. [5] 田立亭,张明霞,汪奂伶.电动汽车对电网影响的评估和解决方案[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(31):43-49,217. Tian Liting,Zhang Mingxia,Wang Huanling.Evaluation and solutions for electric vehicles' impact on the grid[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2012,32(31):43-49,217. [6] 张明霞,田立亭,杨水丽,等.考虑电动汽车充电负荷空间分布的系统特性分析[J].电力系统保护与控制,2014,42(21):86-92. Zhang Mingxia,Tian Liting,Yang Shuili,et al.Influence of electric vehicle charging load distribution on power grid[J].Power System Protection and Control,2014,42(21):86-92. [7] 严弈遥,罗禹贡,朱陶,等.融合电网和交通网信息的电动车辆最优充电路径推荐策略[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(2):310-318. Yan Yiyao,Luo Yugong,Zhu Tao,et al.Optimal charging route recommendation method based on tansportation and distribution information[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(2):310-318. [8] 张新松,顾菊平,袁越,等.电动汽车最优充电模型及其近似求解方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(19):3148-3155. Zhang Xinsong,Gu Juping,Yuan Yue,et al.Optimum electric vehicle charging model and its approximate solving technique[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(19):3148-3155. [9] 周念成,熊希聪,王强钢.多种类型电动汽车接入配电网的充电负荷概率模拟[J].电力自动化设备,2014,34(2):1-7. Zhou Niancheng,Xiong Xicong,Wang Qianggang.Simulation of charging load probability for connection of different electric vehicles to distribution network[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2014,34(2):1-7. [10]罗卓伟,胡泽春,宋永华,等.电动汽车充电负荷计算方法[J].电力系统自动化,2011,35(14):36-42. Luo Zhuowei,Hu Zechun,Song Yonghua,et al.Study on plug-in electric vehicles charging load calculating[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2011,35(14):36-42. [11]陈丽丹,张尧.电动汽车充电负荷预测系统研究[J].电力科学与技术学报,2014,29(1):29-36. Chen Lidan,Zhang Yao.Research on load forecasting system for electric vehicle charging[J].Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology,2014,29(1):29-36. [12]徐浩,苗世洪,钱甜甜,等.计及多日一充模式的规模化电动汽车充电负荷建模策略[J].电工技术学报,2015,30(9):129-137. Xu Hao,Miao Shihong,Qian Tiantian,et al.A modeling strategy for charging loads of large-scale electric vehicles considering multi-days spaced charging mode[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2015,30(9):129-137. [13]陶顺,肖湘宁,温剑锋,等.电动汽车分散充电设施配比度分析与计算方法[J].电工技术学报,2014,29(8):11-19. Tao Shun,Xiao Xiangning,Wen Jianfeng,et al.Configuration ratio for distributed electrical vehicle charging infrastructures[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2014,29(8):11-19. [14]王晓寅,刘俊勇,唐现刚,等.基于空间负荷预测的电动汽车有序充电方法研究[J].浙江电力,2014(2):7-13,21. Wang Xiaoyin,Liu Junyong,Tang Xiangang,et al.Study on coordinated charging of electric vehicle based on spatial load forecasting[J].Zhejiang Electric Power,2014(2):7-13,21. [15]张洪财,胡泽春,宋永华,等.考虑时空分布的电动汽车充电负荷预测方法[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(1):13-20. Zhang Hongcai,Hu Zechun,Song Yonghua,et al.A prediction method for electric vehicle charging load considering spatial and temporal distribution[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(1):13-20. [16]刘青,戚中译.考虑空间运动特性的规模化电动汽车接入电网负荷预测模型[J].现代电力,2015,32(1):76-82. Liu Qing,Qi Zhongyi.The load forecast model for power grid with the accessing of large-scale electric vehicles by considering spatial motion characteristic[J].Modern Electric Power,2015,32(1):76-82. [17]杨冰,王丽芳,廖承林,等.不确定充电习惯对电动汽车充电负荷需求及充电负荷调节的影响[J].电工技术学报,2015,30(4):226-232. Yang Bing,Wang Lifang,Liao Chenglin,et al.Effects of uncertainty charging habits on electric vehicles' charging load demand and the charging load regulation[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2015,30(4):226-232. [18]郭建龙,文福拴.电动汽车充电对电力系统的影响及其对策[J].电力自动化设备,2015,35(6):1-9,30. Guo Jianlong,Wen Fushuan.Impact of electric vehicle charging on power system and relevant countermeasures[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2015,35(6):1-9,30. [19]邵春福.交通规划原理[M].2版.北京:中国铁道出版社,2014. [20]杜长海,黄席樾,杨祖元,等.改进的粒子群算法在动态OD矩阵反推中的应用[J].计算机工程与应用,2008,44(34):234-238. Du Changhai,Huang Xiyue,Yang Zuyuan,et al.Application of improved particle swarm algorithm in dynamic OD matrix estimation[J].Computer Engineering and Applications,2008,44(34):234-238. [21]王国胤,李德毅,姚一豫,等.云模型与粒计算[M].北京:科学出版社,2012. [22]张镱议,廖瑞金,杨丽君,等.基于云理论的电力变压器绝缘状态评估方法[J].电工技术学报,2012,27(5):13-20. Zhang Yiyi,Liao Ruijin,Yang Lijun,et al.An assessment method for insulation condition of power transformer based upon cloud model[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2012,27(5):13-20. [23]Smart J,Schey S.Battery electric vehicle driving and charging behavior observed early in the EV project[J].SAE International Journal of Alternative Powertrai,2012,1(1):27-33. [24]孙伟卿,王承民,张焰,等.电力系统运行均匀性分析与评估[J].电工技术学报,2014,29(4):173-180. Sun Weiqing,Wang Yhengmin,Zhang Yan,et al.Analysis and evaluation on power system operation homogeneity[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2014,29(4):173-180. [25]陈丽丹,聂涌泉,钟庆,等.基于出行链的电动汽车充电负荷预测模型[J].电工技术学报,2015,30(4):216-225. Chen Lidan,Nie Yongquan,Zhong Qing,et al.A model for electric vehicle charging load forecasting based on trip chains[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2015,30(4):216-225.
2017, Vol. 32 
