电工技术学报  2020, Vol. 35 Issue (1): 179-188    DOI: 10.19595/j.cnki.1000-6753.tces.181892
电力系统 |
基于实测数据和行车运行图的高铁牵引变电站负荷预测方法
魏波1, 胡海涛1, 王科1, 傅祺2, 何正友1
1. 西南交通大学电气工程学院 成都 611756;
2. 中国铁路成都局集团有限公司供电部 成都 610081
Research on Traction Load Forecasting Method for High-Speed Railway Traction Substation Based on Measured Data and Train Timetable
Wei Bo1, Hu Haitao1, Wang Ke1, Fu Qi2, He Zhengyou1
1. School of Electrical Engineering Southwest Jiaotong University Chengdu 611756 China;
2. Department of Power Supply China Railway Chengdu Group Co. Ltd Chengdu 610081 China
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摘要 为了精确预测高速铁路牵引变电站动态负荷,该文结合实测数据分析了动车组在区间的典型运行过程及其负荷特性。研究基于滑动窗的典型运行过程检测和识别方法,从实测数据中提取典型运行过程的负荷曲线并建立相应的负荷库。针对牵引负荷的动态特性,应用回归模型和概率统计方法建立典型运行过程的动态负荷模型。在此基础上,结合行车运行图提供的车次、时间等信息,提出基于行车运行图的高铁牵引变电站负荷预测方法。仿真算例验证了所提建模方法的正确性和可行性。该预测方法可实现不同行车运行图下高铁牵引变电站能耗的精确预测,可为运行图的调整提供电气方面的参考。
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魏波
胡海涛
王科
傅祺
何正友
关键词 高速铁路牵引负荷实测数据行车运行图负荷预测回归模型    
Abstract:In order to precisely forecast the dynamic load of the high-speed railway substation, this paper analyzed the typical operation process and the load characteristics of EMU in the power supply interval with measured data. Moreover, it studied the detection and recognition method for the typical operation process using the sliding windows. Consequently, it extracted the dynamic load of the typical operation processes from the measured data and created the load library. To deal with the dynamic characteristics of the traction load, it established the dynamic load models of typical operation processes by using the regression model and probability and statistics method. Furthermore, it proposed a load forecasting method for high-speed railway traction substation with the information of the train timetable, including train trips and operating time. Case studies were carried out to verify the validation of the proposed method. The prediction method can accurately predict the energy consumption of the high-speed railway substation under different scheduled train timetables and can provide an electrical reference for the adjustment of the train timetable.
Key wordsHigh-speed railway    traction loads    measured data    scheduled train time-table    load estimation    regression model   
收稿日期: 2018-12-12      出版日期: 2020-01-17
PACS: TM922.3  
基金资助:铁路总公司科研开发计划(2017J005-D)、中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2682017CX041)和四川省科技计划项目(2018JY0263)资助
通讯作者: 胡海涛 男,1987年生,教授,博士生导师,研究方向牵引供电、电力系统电能质量与稳定性。E-mail:huhaitao16@163.com   
作者简介: 魏 波 男,1991年生,硕士研究生,研究方向为交通能源互联网。E-mail:bo.wei@my.swjtu.edu.cn
引用本文:   
魏波, 胡海涛, 王科, 傅祺, 何正友. 基于实测数据和行车运行图的高铁牵引变电站负荷预测方法[J]. 电工技术学报, 2020, 35(1): 179-188. Wei Bo, Hu Haitao, Wang Ke, Fu Qi, He Zhengyou. Research on Traction Load Forecasting Method for High-Speed Railway Traction Substation Based on Measured Data and Train Timetable. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2020, 35(1): 179-188.
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