Typhoon-Period Short Term Load Forecasting Based on Particle Reduction of Weather Information
Li Bin1, Huang Jia2, Wu Yin3, Qin Fanglu1
1. Guangxi Key Laboratory of Power System Optimization and Energy Technology Guangxi University Nanning 530004 China; 2. Nanning Power Supply Bureau Guangxi Power Grid Nanning 530028 China; 3. Limited Liability Company For Guangxi Power Grid Power Dispatching Control Center Nanning 530023 China
Abstract：During the typhoon period, the weather will undergo a three-stage change, and the periodic model of power load will be broken. In order to improve the accuracy of load prediction during the typhoon period, a time load forecasting method based on particle reduction of weather information is proposed. To adapt to the process of weather changes in typhoon transit, the trend of load level during the typhoon period is regarded as the segmentation function, and the time period is determined by the determination condition of the typhoon mode. According to the great correlation between adjusting load and change of urban load affected by typhoon, load variation model is established by multiple linear regression fitting the key factors. When the wind speed reaches a certain threshold, the loss of load caused by destructive typhoon is considered. The basic adjusting forecasting model is established by seeking similar Typhoon-free properties environments in the method of particle reduction for weather information. The simulation results of data validation in Guangxi electric power grid provide a more accurate data support for the grid scheduling arrangement during the typhoon period.
李滨, 黄佳, 吴茵, 覃芳璐. 基于气象信息粒还原的台风分时段短期负荷预测[J]. 电工技术学报, 2018, 33(9): 2068-2076.
Li Bin, Huang Jia, Wu Yin, Qin Fanglu. Typhoon-Period Short Term Load Forecasting Based on Particle Reduction of Weather Information. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2018, 33(9): 2068-2076.
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2018, Vol. 33 
