Degradation Prediction Method of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Based on Online Optimization of Model Parameters
Han Yunfei1, Gao Fengyang1, Zhang Jiangang2, Tao Caixia1, Huang Jiaojiao3
1. Automation and Electrical Engineering Lanzhou Jiaotong University Lanzhou 730070 China; 2. College of Mathematics and Physics Lanzhou Jiaotong University Lanzhou 730070 China; 3. Bailie Mechanical Engineering Lanzhou City University Lanzhou 730070 China
Abstract：Durability is a key limiting factor for the large-scale commercialization of proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFC), and predicting performance degradation has become a current research hotspot. PEMFC aging data exhibit highly nonlinear, random, and periodic characteristics, making it difficult for prediction models to extract features from historical data effectively. Therefore, improving the accuracy of PEMFC voltage degradation prediction is an urgent problem. Combined with convolutional neural networks (CNN), bidirectional long short-term memory networks (BiLSTM), and an attention mechanism, this paper proposes a hybrid method for PEMFC voltage degradation prediction. Firstly, historical voltage data for PEMFC are processed using the median absolute deviation method, the Gaussian moving-average filter, and the maxmin normalization algorithm during subsequent data training. This process also ensures the temporal continuity and representativeness of the data. Then, a variant particle swarm optimization algorithm is introduced into the CNN-BiLSTM-Attention model to address the high nonlinearity in voltage data. At the same time, parameters, such as the learning rate, convolution kernel size, number of BiLSTM neurons, and the number of attention mechanism keys, are dynamically optimized. Thus, the method effectively prevents poor fitting and overfitting, thereby improving prediction accuracy and robustness. Finally, the proposed method is validated using steady-state and dynamic voltage aging datasets. The CNN-BiLSTM-Attention, CNN-BiLSTM, CNN, BiLSTM, and Transformer prediction models are compared. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) The proposed method achieves more accurate voltage prediction accuracy, generalization, and robustness under different working conditions and step sizes of training datasets. (2) Under the same step size of training datasets and working conditions, the proposed method exhibits lower dependency on historical voltage data. In steady-state conditions, the cumulative prediction error of the CNN-BiLSTM-Attention model optimized by the AsyLnCPSO algorithm is reduced by up to 45.3% compared to the benchmark models. In contrast, the cumulative prediction error of the same model optimized by the SAPSO algorithm is reduced by up to 41.3%. In dynamic conditions, the cumulative prediction error of the CNN- BiLSTM-Attention model optimized by the AsyLnCPSO algorithm is reduced by up to 42.2%. The cumulative prediction error of the same model optimized by the SAPSO algorithm is reduced by up to 24.8% compared to the benchmark models. Based on the original voltage-aging data, 10% Gaussian noise is added. The proposed model's predictive performance remains excellent. (3) The proposed method has a simple structure, which is easy to implement and suitable for online applications in real vehicles.
通讯作者:
张建刚 男,1978年生,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为非线性动力学、氢燃料电池健康管理系统。E-mail: zhangjg7715776@126. com
作者简介: 韩云飞 男,1996年生,博士研究生,研究方向为氢燃料电池寿命预测和健康管理系统。E-mail: 1677809827@qq. com
引用本文:
韩云飞, 高锋阳, 张建刚, 陶彩霞, 黄娇娇. 模型参数在线优化的质子交换膜燃料电池退化预测方法[J]. 电工技术学报, 2026, 41(6): 2146-2162.
Han Yunfei, Gao Fengyang, Zhang Jiangang, Tao Caixia, Huang Jiaojiao. Degradation Prediction Method of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Based on Online Optimization of Model Parameters. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2026, 41(6): 2146-2162.
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2026, Vol. 41 
