Research on Traction Load Forecasting Method for High-Speed Railway Traction Substation Based on Measured Data and Train Timetable
Wei Bo1, Hu Haitao1, Wang Ke1, Fu Qi2, He Zhengyou1
1. School of Electrical Engineering Southwest Jiaotong University Chengdu 611756 China; 2. Department of Power Supply China Railway Chengdu Group Co. Ltd Chengdu 610081 China
Abstract：In order to precisely forecast the dynamic load of the high-speed railway substation, this paper analyzed the typical operation process and the load characteristics of EMU in the power supply interval with measured data. Moreover, it studied the detection and recognition method for the typical operation process using the sliding windows. Consequently, it extracted the dynamic load of the typical operation processes from the measured data and created the load library. To deal with the dynamic characteristics of the traction load, it established the dynamic load models of typical operation processes by using the regression model and probability and statistics method. Furthermore, it proposed a load forecasting method for high-speed railway traction substation with the information of the train timetable, including train trips and operating time. Case studies were carried out to verify the validation of the proposed method. The prediction method can accurately predict the energy consumption of the high-speed railway substation under different scheduled train timetables and can provide an electrical reference for the adjustment of the train timetable.
魏波, 胡海涛, 王科, 傅祺, 何正友. 基于实测数据和行车运行图的高铁牵引变电站负荷预测方法[J]. 电工技术学报, 2020, 35(1): 179-188.
Wei Bo, Hu Haitao, Wang Ke, Fu Qi, He Zhengyou. Research on Traction Load Forecasting Method for High-Speed Railway Traction Substation Based on Measured Data and Train Timetable. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2020, 35(1): 179-188.
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2020, Vol. 35 
