考虑光伏和负荷相关性的概率潮流计算

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摘要位于相邻地区的光伏电源输出功率和负荷之间存在较强的相关关系,而现有的概率潮流研究并未准确计及。通过结合参数和非参数概率建模理论,提出了一种光伏功率的综合建模方法,该方法能够准确反映光伏功率的随机特性且无需任何参数分布的假设信息。利用等概率转换原则和Cholesky分解技术处理多个光伏电源的输出功率之间及其与负荷之间的相关关系。在此基础上,进一步提出了一种能够准确计及任意分布的光伏和负荷相关性的Monte Carlo概率潮流计算方法,并引入中值拉丁超立方抽样技术以提高抽样效率,降低计算复杂度。针对美国某光伏电站的实测数据和69节点配电系统进行仿真分析,验证了所提方法的准确性和有效性。

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	任洲洋
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关键词 ：光伏发电, 相关性, 蒙特卡洛, 概率潮流

Abstract：The correlations between power outputs of photovoltaic (PV) generators and loads at adjacent locations actually exist and are not accurately considered in the current research on the probabilistic power flow analysis. Based on the parametric and nonparametric probabilistic modeling theories, the comprehensive model of PV generation is proposed and the randomness of PV outputs can be accurately reflected without any assumption of theoretical distributions. The correlations between the PV outputs and loads are considered by combining the marginal transformation and Cholesky decomposition techniques. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo based probabilistic power flow analysis method is developed, which can capture the correlations between PV outputs and loads obeying different probability distributions. The Latin Hypercube Sampling method, an efficient sampling method, is also introduced to decrease the computation burden. The measured power data of PV generator in USA and the 69-node distribution network are used to demonstrate the correctness and effectiveness of the presented probabilistic power flow analysis method.

Key words： Photovoltaic generation correlation Monte Carlo probabilistic power flow

收稿日期: 2013-12-12 出版日期: 2015-12-30

PACS:

TM744

基金资助:中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目（106112015CDJXY 150002）

作者简介: 任洲洋男,1986年生,博士,讲师,研究方向为电力系统风险评估和电力系统大数据分析。颜伟男,1968年生,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为电力系统规划与优化运行和电力系统风险评估。

引用本文:

任洲洋, 颜伟, 项波, 赵霞, 王强钢, 余娟. 考虑光伏和负荷相关性的概率潮流计算[J]. 电工技术学报, 2015, 30(24): 181-187. Ren Zhouyang, Yan Wei, Xiang Bo, Zhao Xia, Wang Qianggang, Yu Juan. Probabilistic Power Flow Analysis Incorporating the Correlations between PV Power Outputs and Loads. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2015, 30(24): 181-187.

链接本文:

https://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/CN/Y2015/V30/I24/181

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