一种牵引供电系统地震灾害风险评估方法

doi:10.19595/j.cnki.1000-6753.tces.210878

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摘要电气化铁路牵引供电系统的安全可靠至关重要,然而部分地区牵引供电系统面临地震灾害威胁。为有效评估地震灾害下牵引供电系统的风险水平,该文首先采用蒙特卡洛方法模拟地震灾害并得到表征地震动强度的峰值加速度指标;然后通过分析系统主接线,建立系统的有向图逻辑模型,在此基础上,考虑系统停运概率、关键设备损失以及停运时间等因素定义风险指标,提出牵引供电系统地震灾害风险评估方法;最后选取西南地区某规划中的电气化铁路牵引供电系统作为算例,评估系统在地震灾害下的风险。结果表明,该文算法能有效量化牵引供电系统在地震灾害下的风险水平,可实现震后快速损失评估,为灾后抢险、应急物资调配提供参考,也可为牵引供电系统抗震规划提供理论依据。

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关键词 ：牵引供电系统, 地震, 风险评估, 蒙特卡洛模拟

Abstract：The safe and reliable operation of the traction power supply system of electrified railways is of great importance. However, the system is threatened by earthquake disasters in some regions. To effectively evaluate the risk level of the traction power supply system under earthquake disasters, this paper first uses Monte Carlo method to simulate earthquake disasters to obtain the peak ground acceleration that characterizes the ground motion intensity, and then establishes a directed graph logic model of the system by analyzing the main wiring of the system. On this basis, the risk indicators are defined by considering factors such as the system outage probability, the key equipment loss, and the outage time, and a method of earthquake disaster risk assessment for the traction power supply system is proposed. Finally, the traction power supply system of an electrified railway under construction in southwest China is taken as an example to evaluate the risk level of the system under earthquake disasters. The results show that the method proposed in this paper can effectively quantify the risk level of the traction power supply system under earthquake disasters. It can achieve rapid loss assessment after the earthquake, guide post-disaster rescue and emergency resource deployment, and provide a theoretical basis for the seismic design of the traction power supply system.

Key words： Traction power supply system earthquake risk assessment Monte Carlo simulation

收稿日期: 2021-06-17

PACS:

U223.8

基金资助:国家自然科学基金（51907166）和中国博士后科学基金（2020M680152）资助项目

通讯作者: 林圣男,1983年生,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为轨道交通供电系统健康诊断。E-mail: slin@swjtu.edu.cn

作者简介: 孙小军男,1991年生,博士研究生,研究方向为牵引供电系统灾害风险评估。E-mail: sunxiaojun3312@163.com

引用本文:

孙小军, 林圣, 张强, 冯玎, 谭磊. 一种牵引供电系统地震灾害风险评估方法[J]. 电工技术学报, 2021, 36(23): 4970-4980. Sun Xiaojun, Lin Sheng, Zhang Qiang, Feng Ding, Tan Lei. A Method of Seismic Disaster Risk Assessment for the Traction Power Supply System. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2021, 36(23): 4970-4980.

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