基于统计回归和非线性Wiener过程的交流接触器剩余寿命预测

doi:10.19595/j.cnki.1000-6753.tces.180764

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摘要电弧侵蚀引起交流接触器触头质量损耗,使其电接触性能不断退化,根据其性能退化过程可以对交流接触器剩余寿命进行预测。该文分析可线性化的非线性Wiener过程,采用统计回归的建模方法,利用触头质量损耗历史数据建立三阶函数退化轨迹模型,进而建立时间尺度变换模型,对分段累积操作次数进行时间尺度变换;以累积触头质量损耗首次达到失效阈值作为失效判据,提出基于非线性Wiener过程的可靠性评估方法和剩余寿命预测模型;在交流接触器电寿命试验基础上,进行试验数据变化规律分析,证明可以采用本文建立的退化模型和预测方法进行交流接触器剩余寿命预测;最后,通过试验数据进行交流接触器剩余寿命的极大似然估计,并比较分析不同数据处理方法的预测精度,验证了本文剩余寿命预测方法的准确性。

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	李奎
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	李正广

关键词 ：交流接触器, 触头质量损耗, Wiener过程, 统计回归, 寿命预测

Abstract：The contact mass of AC contactor reduces under the influence of arc erosion, which lead to the degradation of electrical contact, and the residual life can be predicted based on the degradation processes. In this paper, first, three order function degradation path model was established based on the complete historical degradation information of the mass loss of contact. Then the time-scale transformation model is established to transform the time of nonlinear field data. Second, the reliability assessment method and the residual life prediction model were established bsed on the linearizable nonlinear Wiener process. And failure criteria was proposed based on the accumulate contact mass loss arrived the failure threshold for the first time. Besides, based on the electrical life test of AC contactor, the performance degradation model and the residual life prediction method were verified that they can be used to predict the residual life of the AC contactor. Finally, the maximum likelihood estimation of the residual life of the AC contactor is performed through the test data. And the prediction accuracy of different data processing methods is compared and analyzed, which verify the accuracy of the residual life prediction method in this paper.

Key words： AC contactor mass loss of contact Wiener process statistical regression life prediction

收稿日期: 2018-05-03 出版日期: 2019-10-12

PACS:

TM572.2

基金资助:国家自然科学基金（51377043,51777056）、国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）（2015CB251002）、河北省自然科学基金（E2015202109）和河北省教育厅基金（GCC2014027）资助项目

通讯作者: 李奎男,1965年生,博士,教授,研究方向为开关设备可靠性与智能化。E-mail：likui@hebut.edu.cn

作者简介: 高志成男,1993年生,硕士研究生,研究方向为电器可靠性及检测技术。E-mail：201621401060@stu.hebut.edu.cn

引用本文:

李奎, 高志成, 武一, 郑淑梅, 李正广. 基于统计回归和非线性Wiener过程的交流接触器剩余寿命预测[J]. 电工技术学报, 2019, 34(19): 4058-4070. Li Kui, Gao Zhicheng, Wu Yi, Zheng Shumei, Li Zhengguang. Remaining Lifetime Prediction of AC Contactor Based on Statistical Regression and Nonlinear Wiener Process. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2019, 34(19): 4058-4070.

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