Hierarchical Optimal Scheduling for Pumped Storage to Enhance System Flexibility under Supply-Demand Uncertainty
Lü Wanyu1, Zhao Hongsheng2, Han Yingsheng3, Hu De4,5, Peng Xiaotao4,5
1. Zhengzhou Power Supply Company of State Grid Zhengzhou 450052 China; 2. State Grid HBEPC Economic & Technology Research Institute Wuhan 430077 China; 3. Hubei Central China Technology Development of Electric Power Co. Ltd Wuhan 430077 China; 4. Key Laboratory for Hubei Province Integrated Energy Power System Equipment and System Security Wuhan 430072 China; 5. School of Electrical Engineering and Automation Wuhan University Wuhan 430072 China
Abstract：Considering the impact of new energy grid connection on the supply-demand balance of system peak regulation and ramping flexibility, this study employs two approaches: On one hand, the semi-invariant method and Gram-Charlier series expansion are used to model the probability density function of conventional power sources' peak regulation and ramping capacity considering forced outages. On the other hand, Gaussian mixture distribution and an expectation-maximization based weight assignment method are adopted to model the probability density function of net load considering prediction errors of new energy and load. Based on this, a method for quantifying system flexibility supply shortages using convolution probability weighting is proposed. Next, taking pumped storage as a flexibility regulation resource and considering its response characteristics as an independent operation entity, a hierarchical optimal dispatching model for pumped storage to enhance the system's flexibility supply capacity is established. The upper and lower layer optimization objectives are respectively set as minimizing flexibility supply shortages and system operation costs, and maximizing the economic benefits of pumped storage's flexible regulation operations. For solving the model: the particle swarm optimization algorithm is adopted to optimize the time-of-use pricing for pumped storage participation in flexibility regulation in the upper-layer model; The Gurobi solver is used to optimize the power output of pumped storage in the lower-layer model. The two layers achieve collaborative optimization through interactive iteration of their respective optimal solutions. Then, three aspects of simulation studies were conducted: Firstly, comparative analysis was performed on the quantification methods of system flexibility shortage capacity through convolution probability weighting and mathematical expectation, verifying the effectiveness of the proposed flexibility shortage capacity quantification method considering supply-demand uncertainties. Secondly, simulations were carried out based on the scenario of pumped storage enhancing system flexibility to validate the effectiveness of the hierarchical optimal dispatch strategy. By comparing the improvement effects of the pumped storage optimal dispatch strategies determined under different flexibility shortage quantification results on system flexibility in supply-demand uncertainty scenarios, the robust adaptability of the hierarchical optimal dispatch method to uncertainty impacts was demonstrated. Thirdly,using the proposed dispatch strategy, a comparative study was conducted on the operational benefit characteristics of fixed-speed and variable-speed pumped storage in improving system flexibility under high new energy penetration rates. Finally, the following conclusions can be drawn from the study: (1) The proposed flexibility shortage quantification method can account for the impacts of supply-demand uncertainties. Its evaluation results help enhance the robustness of dispatch strategies under uncertain scenarios such as unit forced outages and net load prediction errors, enabling pumped storage to more effectively enhance the system's flexibility supply capacity. (2) The proposed hierarchical optimal dispatch model balances the interests of the power grid and pumped storage plants. It can not only improve the grid's new energy accommodation capacity through pumped storage but also reduce the impact of uncertain fluctuations in grid power purchase prices on the expected benefits of pumped storage participating in flexibility regulation. (3) The gap in power supply flexibility capacity expands with the increase in new energy penetration. Compared with fixed-speed pumped storage, using variable-speed pumped storage to enhance the system's flexibility supply capacity offers better operational benefits.
吕婉煜, 赵红生, 韩应生, 胡德, 彭晓涛. 供需不确定性下抽水蓄能提升系统灵活性的分层优化调度[J]. 电工技术学报, 2025, 40(21): 6984-6999.
Lü Wanyu, Zhao Hongsheng, Han Yingsheng, Hu De, Peng Xiaotao. Hierarchical Optimal Scheduling for Pumped Storage to Enhance System Flexibility under Supply-Demand Uncertainty. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2025, 40(21): 6984-6999.
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2025, Vol. 40 
