供需不确定性下抽水蓄能提升系统灵活性的分层优化调度方法研究

doi:10.19595/j.cnki.1000-6753.tces.240815

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摘要

考虑新能源并网对系统调峰和爬坡灵活性供需平衡的影响,首先在建立供需两侧灵活性考虑强迫停运和预测误差的概率密度函数基础上,提出基于卷积概率加权和量化系统灵活性供给不足的的方法;其次分别以减小灵活性供给不足和系统运行成本、提高抽蓄调节灵活性运行经济效益作为上下层优化目标,建立抽蓄提升系统灵活性供给能力的分层优化调度模型;然后采用粒子群算法求解上层模型优化调度抽蓄参与灵活性调节的分时电价,利用Gurobi求解下层模型优化抽蓄的出力,两层模型通过交互迭代彼此最优解进行协同寻优;最后通过对比不同不确定性影响下的灵活性供给能力不足、抽蓄优化调度策略的鲁棒适应性,验证了所提灵活性供给能力量化方法和抽蓄优化调度策略的有效性。同时对比仿真表明变速抽蓄较定速抽蓄具有在提升系统灵活性方面具有更好的运行效益。

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	吕婉煜
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关键词 ：电力系统灵活性, 抽水蓄能, 调峰容量, 爬坡容量, 双层优化

Abstract：

Considering the impact of new energy grid connection on the supply-demand balance of system peak regulation and ramping flexibility, this study employs two approaches: On one hand, the semi-invariant method and Gram-Charlier series expansion are used to model the probability density function of conventional power sources' peak regulation and ramping capacity considering forced outages. On the other hand, Gaussian mixture distribution and an expectation-maximization based weight assignment method are adopted to model the probability density function of net load considering prediction errors of new energy and load. Based on this, a method for quantifying system flexibility supply shortages using convolution probability weighting is proposed.
Next, taking pumped storage as a flexibility regulation resource and considering its response characteristics as an independent operation entity, a hierarchical optimal dispatching model for pumped storage to enhance the system's flexibility supply capacity is established. The upper and lower layer optimization objectives are respectively set as minimizing flexibility supply shortages and system operation costs, and maximizing the economic benefits of pumped storage's flexible regulation operations. For solving the model: the particle swarm optimization algorithm is adopted to optimize the time-of-use pricing for pumped storage participation in flexibility regulation in the upper-layer model; The Gurobi solver is used to optimize the power output of pumped storage in the lower-layer model. The two layers achieve collaborative optimization through interactive iteration of their respective optimal solutions.
Then, Finally, three aspects of simulation studies were conducted: Firstly, comparative analysis was performed on the quantification methods of system flexibility shortage capacity through convolution probability weighting and mathematical expectation, verifying the effectiveness of the proposed flexibility shortage capacity quantification method considering supply-demand uncertainties. Secondly, simulations were carried out based on the scenario of pumped storage enhancing system flexibility to validate the effectiveness of the hierarchical optimal dispatch strategy. By comparing the improvement effects of the pumped storage optimal dispatch strategies determined under different flexibility shortage quantification results on system flexibility in supply-demand uncertainty scenarios, the robust adaptability of the hierarchical optimal dispatch method to uncertainty impacts was demonstrated. Thirdly,using the proposed dispatch strategy, a comparative study was conducted on the operational benefit characteristics of fixed-speed and variable-speed pumped storage in improving system flexibility under high new energy penetration rates.
Finally, the following conclusions can be drawn from the study: (1) The proposed flexibility shortage quantification method can account for the impacts of supply-demand uncertainties. Its evaluation results help enhance the robustness of dispatch strategies under uncertain scenarios such as unit forced outages and net load prediction errors, enabling pumped storage to more effectively enhance the system's flexibility supply capacity. (2) The proposed hierarchical optimal dispatch model balances the interests of the power grid and pumped storage plants. It can not only improve the grid's new energy accommodation capacity through pumped storage but also reduce the impact of uncertain fluctuations in grid power purchase prices on the expected benefits of pumped storage participating in flexibility regulation. (3) The gap in power supply flexibility capacity expands with the increase in new energy penetration. Compared with fixed-speed pumped storage, using variable-speed pumped storage to enhance the system's flexibility supply capacity offers better operational benefits.

Key words： Power system flexibility pumped storage unit peaking capacity ramping capacity hierarchical

收稿日期: 2024-10-17

PACS:

TM762

基金资助:

国家自然科学基金资助项目（52237004）

通讯作者: 彭晓涛男,1971年生,副教授,博士生导师,研究方向为新能源并网控制及其优化、储能技术在电力系统应用。E-mail：pengxiaotao@whu.edu.cn

作者简介: 吕婉煜女,1997年生,硕士,研究方向为新能源并网运行与控制。E-mail：lvwanyu0228@163.com

引用本文:

吕婉煜, 赵红生, 韩应生, 胡德, 彭晓涛. 供需不确定性下抽水蓄能提升系统灵活性的分层优化调度方法研究[J]. 电工技术学报, 0, (): 20241815-20241815. Lv Wanyu, Zhao Hongsheng, Han Yingsheng, Hu De, Peng Xiaotao. Hierarchical Optimal Scheduling for Pumped Storage to Enhance System Flexibility under Supply-Demand Uncertainty. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 0, (): 20241815-20241815.

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