电工技术学报  2019, Vol. 34 Issue (6): 1201-1217    DOI: 10.19595/j.cnki.1000-6753.tces.180326
电力系统 |
光伏发电出力预测技术研究综述
赖昌伟, 黎静华, 陈博, 黄玉金, 韦善阳
广西电力系统最优化与节能技术重点实验室(广西大学电气工程学院) 南宁 530004
Review of Photovoltaic Power Output Prediction Technology
Lai Changwei, Li Jinghua, Chen Bo, Huang Yujin, Wei Shanyang
Guangxi Key Laboratory of Power System Optimization and Energy-Saving Technology School of Electrical Engineering Guangxi University Nanning 530004 China
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摘要 准确的光伏发电出力预测对于保障高比例光伏接入后系统的安全稳定与经济运行具有重要意义。目前我国对于光伏发电出力预测技术的研究尚处于广泛研究阶段,本文对光伏发电出力预测技术的研究成果进行归纳总结。首先,分析光伏发电系统的发展及预测现状;然后,从点预测、区间预测和概率预测三个方面,分别对当前的预测方法及技术、预测效果的衡量指标等进行了梳理、归类、总结和评述;最后,根据目前我国光伏产业的现状及发展趋势,探讨未来光伏发展及出力预测的研究方向。
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赖昌伟
黎静华
陈博
黄玉金
韦善阳
关键词 光伏发电出力预测技术点预测区间预测概率预测评价指标    
Abstract:Accurate prediction of photovoltaic power output is of great significance to ensure the security, stability and economic operation of the system after high proportion of PV access. At present, the research of photovoltaic power output prediction technology is still at stage of extensive research in our country. The research results of photovoltaic power output prediction technology are summarized in this paper. Firstly, the development of photovoltaic power generation system and its forecasting status are analyzed. Then, the current prediction methods and technologies, the measurement index of prediction effect and so on are combed, classified, summarized and commented respectively from the three aspects of point prediction, interval prediction and probability prediction. Finally, the future research direction of photovoltaic development and output prediction are discussed according to the current situation and development trend of photovoltaic industry in China. It is hoped that this work can provide reference for researchers in the field of photovoltaic power generation prediction.
Key wordsPhotovoltaic power generation    prediction technology    point prediction    interval prediction    probability prediction    evaluation index   
收稿日期: 2018-03-13      出版日期: 2019-03-29
PACS: TM615  
基金资助:国家重点研发计划(2016YFB0900100)和国家自然科学基金(51377027)资助项目
通讯作者: 黎静华 女,1982年生,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为电力系统优化运行与控制、大规模可再生能源并网技术等。E-mail: happyjinghua@163.com   
作者简介: 赖昌伟男,1991年生,硕士研究生,研究方向为高比例可再生能源电力系统预测研究。E-mail:laiwei_gxu@qq.com
引用本文:   
赖昌伟, 黎静华, 陈博, 黄玉金, 韦善阳. 光伏发电出力预测技术研究综述[J]. 电工技术学报, 2019, 34(6): 1201-1217. Lai Changwei, Li Jinghua, Chen Bo, Huang Yujin, Wei Shanyang. Review of Photovoltaic Power Output Prediction Technology. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2019, 34(6): 1201-1217.
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