灰色模型在触点电器电接触失效预测中的应用

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摘要为了对触点电器的电接触可靠性进行准确预测,本文以继电器产品为例,基于两种灰色预测模型（即单变量和多变量预测模型）对继电器的性能退化数据进行处理。预测结果表明：单变量预测模型的平均相对误差为4.0786%,而多变量预测模型的平均相对误差为1.0143%。因此,在所要求的预测精度不高的情况下,单变量预测模型和多变量预测模型均适用于对触点电器的电接触性能进行预测,而在预测精度要求较高的情况下,应采用多变量灰色预测模型。

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	刘伯颖
	孙训俊
	李玲玲
	王国玲
	韩俊杰

关键词 ：触点电器, 继电器, 灰色预测模型, 电接触失效

Abstract：In order to predict the electrical contact reliability of electrical contacts accurately. This paper takes relay as an example, the degradation data of the relay.are processed by two grey prediction models (univariate and multivariate prediction models). The results show that the average relative error of univariate predictive model is 4.0786%, but the average relative error of multivariate predictive model is 1.0143%.So, if the required accuracy is not high, the univariate and multivariate prediction model can be used to predict the electrical contact reliability of electrical contacts, but if the required accuracy is relatively high, multivariate prediction model should be adopted.

Key words： Electrical contacts the relays grey prediction model electrical contact failure

收稿日期: 2013-10-11 出版日期: 2014-05-22

PACS:

TM57

基金资助:国家自然科学基金(61072100与51377044), 天津市自然科学基金(12JCYBJC12400), 河北省高等学校科学技术研究 (ZD2010119), 河北省建设科技研究计划 (2011-147)和天津市高等学校科技发展基金计划(20130422)资助项目

作者简介: 刘伯颖男, 1979年生, 副教授, 博士, 主要研究方向为电器可靠性及检测技术。孙训俊男, 1987年生, 硕士研究生, 主要研究方向为电器可靠性及检测技术。

引用本文:

刘伯颖, 孙训俊, 李玲玲, 王国玲, 韩俊杰. 灰色模型在触点电器电接触失效预测中的应用[J]. 电工技术学报, 2013, 28(2增): 418-423. Liu Boying, Sun Xunjun, Li Lingling, Wang Guoling, Han Junjie. Grey Model in the Application of Relay Contact Failure Prediction. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2013, 28(2增): 418-423.

链接本文:

http://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/CN/Y2013/V28/I2增/418

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