电工技术学报  2024, Vol. 39 Issue (19): 6119-6128    DOI: 10.19595/j.cnki.1000-6753.tces.231267
电力系统与综合能源 |
考虑综合需求响应的Transformer-图神经网络综合能源系统多元负荷短期预测
李云松, 张智晟
青岛大学电气工程学院 青岛 266071
Transformer Based Multi Load Short-Term Forecasting of Integrated Energy System Considering Integrated Demand Response
Li Yunsong, Zhang Zhisheng
College of Electrical Engineering Qingdao University Qingdao 266071 China
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摘要 为提高在需求响应情境下,综合能源系统的多元负荷短期预测精度,基于消费者心理学、响应不确定性原理、耦合响应原理,构建了考虑综合需求响应的Transformer-图神经网络(Trans-GNN)预测模型。通过响应不确定性随电价差产生的变化规律和消费者心理学原理,量化在不同概率条件下的电力需求响应结果。通过耦合响应原理,求解包含冷、热耦合响应的综合需求响应信号,最终利用注意力机制将综合需求响应信号引入Trans-GNN预测模型,提高网络模型在需求响应情境下的多元负荷预测能力。算例分析结果表明,该模型能有效地提高预测精度,为计及综合需求响应的多元负荷预测研究提供了一定的理论基础。
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李云松
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关键词 综合能源系统综合需求响应耦合响应图神经网络Transformer模型多元负荷短期预测    
Abstract:The accurate forecasting of multi load in an integrated energy system is imperative for ensuring the efficient and secure operation of diverse energy sources. Demand response technology not only enhances the equilibrium between energy supply and demand but also induces changes in users' general energy consumption habits, thereby amplifying the complexity and uncertainty of load forecasting. While existing research explores the coupling relationships among different energy sources in integrated energy systems and employs artificial intelligence methods for predictions, there is a noticeable gap in research concerning multi load forecasting that incorporates integrated demand response. To address these issues, this paper presents a Trans-GNN prediction model that incorporates integrated demand response considerations. Through the mathematical modeling of integrated demand response signals and their incorporation as input variables into the deep learning model, the accuracy of load predictions in demand response scenarios is improved.
Firstly, adhering to consumer psychology principles, we establish the power demand response center curve. By statistically calculating the fluctuation value of power demand response under various probability conditions, considering the correlation between response uncertainty and electricity price difference, we derive the power demand response signal with due consideration to uncertainty. Employing this signal and the coupling response principle, we ascertain the demand coupling response signal for cold and heat loads, culminating in the derivation of a integrated demand response signal. Then the Trans-GNN model integrates this signal, historical energy consumption data, and meteorological data for prediction. Through Transformer 's attention mechanism, the model realizes the probabilistic understanding of the integrated demand response signal, and dynamically extracts and filters the historical energy consumption data. Finally, the graph neural network is used to complete the further analysis of the input data and load forecasting.
In this paper, the data set of Tempe campus of Arizona State University in the United States is used as a simulation example to predict the multi load in a week, and the validity of the model is verified. The proposed model yields mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of 1.084%, 1.186%, and 1.477% for electric load, cooling load, and heat load, respectively. Corresponding root mean square error (RMSE) values are 387.100 kW, 703.008 kW, and 24.627 kW, while the weighted mean absolute percentage error (WMAPE) is 1.203%. Through the attention heat map, the way in which the model analyzes the input data is visualized, and the rationality of the model structure is verified. The error distribution of the model is statistically analyzed by the prediction error distribution, and the prediction stability of the model is further analyzed.
The following conclusions can be drawn from the simulation analysis: (1) The integrated demand response signal can effectively improve the short-term prediction accuracy of the model in the context of integrated demand response. (2) The reasonable application of attention mechanism can improve model 's ability to understand the importance of input information. By extracting historical data at critical time points, the model can grasp the regularity of load forecasting problems and effectively analyze the uncertainty of integrated demand response signals. (3) The application of graph neural network can make the model effectively analyze the coupling relationship between the operation mode of the integrated energy system and the multi load, and improve the prediction performance.
Key wordsIntegrated energy system    integrated demand response    coupling response    graph neural network    Transformer model    multi load short-term forecasting   
收稿日期: 2023-08-06     
PACS: TM715  
基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目(52077108)
通讯作者: 张智晟 男,1975年生,教授,博士,研究方向为电力系统和综合能源系统负荷预测、经济调度等。E-mail:slnzzs@126.com   
作者简介: 李云松 男,1999年生,硕士研究生,研究方向为区域综合能源系统多元负荷预测。E-mail:1012413565@qq.com
引用本文:   
李云松, 张智晟. 考虑综合需求响应的Transformer-图神经网络综合能源系统多元负荷短期预测[J]. 电工技术学报, 2024, 39(19): 6119-6128. Li Yunsong, Zhang Zhisheng. Transformer Based Multi Load Short-Term Forecasting of Integrated Energy System Considering Integrated Demand Response. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2024, 39(19): 6119-6128.
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