基于不确定理论的光伏出力预测研究

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Abstract The forecast of photovoltaic output is important to the grid-connection of the photovoltaic power generation system. Most of the current method of forecasting PV output can only obtain a single prediction results, lacking of the analysis of uncertainty factors. Taking into account that solar radiation and temperature are the two most important factors, a model is presented based on the uncertainty theory in the paper. After analyzing the fuzziness of the cloud cover and the birandomness of cloud cover index, the expectations and critical values of the cloud cover index are calculated corresponding to forecasted cloud cover by using the birandom theory. By correcting the radiation values got from the cloudless weather REST model with the cloud cover index, the forecast solar radiation can be got, and ultimately the PV output under different cloud cover andthe prediction interval under different confidence levels can be got. The model selects data from BMS PV plant in the U.S. to verify its validity. Prediction results show that the model can provide richer information andhas good practicability.

Key words： Photovoltaic power generation solar radiation cloud cover fuzzy cloud cover index birandom

Received: 22 July 2013 Published: 14 September 2015

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TK511

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	Articles by authors
	Zhao Shuqiang
	Wang Mingyu
	Hu Yongqiang
	Liu Chenliang

Cite this article:

Zhao Shuqiang,Wang Mingyu,Hu Yongqiang等. Research on the Prediction of PV Output Based on Uncertainty Theory[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2015, 30(16): 213-220.

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https://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/EN/ OR https://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/EN/Y2015/V30/I16/213

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