1. Key Laboratory of Engineering Dielectrics and Its Application Ministry of Education Harbin University of Science and Technology Harbin 150080 China; 2. State Key Laboratory Breeding Base of Dielectrics Engineering Harbin University of Science and Technology Harbin 150080 China
Abstract：The safe and stable operation of the transformer is an important guarantee for reliable power supply.In order to reasonably predict residual life of oil paper insulation for single transformer in actual operation. This paper provides a prediction method for residual life of oil-paper insulation system of single transformer. Firstly this paper selects the Wiener stochastic model as the theoretical basis. And the residual probability density function equation is established. Secondly the Bayesian rule is used to update the parameters in real time. Meanwhile, the EM algorithm is used to update the iteration parameter. Finally the purpose of the prediction of residual life is achieved. In order to verify the accuracy of the residual life prediction method further. Accelerated thermal aging test at 130℃ in laboratory. The furfural degradation data and the degree of polymerization of pressboard were obtained. The degradation data are combined with the above algorithms. The measured residual life of oil-paper insulation compared calculation result. The accuracy of residual life prediction of transformer oil impregnated pressboard is verified.
张明泽, 刘骥, 陈昕, 廖俐琳, 陈庆国. 基于Wiener模型的变压器油纸绝缘老化剩余寿命评估方法[J]. 电工技术学报, 2018, 33(21): 5098-5108.
Zhang Mingze, Liu Ji, Chen Xin, Liao Lilin, Chen Qingguo. Residual Life Assessment Method of Transformer Oil-Paper Insulation Aging Based on Wiener Modle. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2018, 33(21): 5098-5108.
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2018, Vol. 33 
