电工技术学报  2016, Vol. 31 Issue (6): 187-194    DOI:
电力系统 |
基于Nataf逆变换的概率潮流三点估计法
张立波1, 程浩忠1, 曾平良2, 姚良忠2, Masoud Bazargan3
1. 电力传输与功率变换控制教育部重点实验室(上海交通大学) 上海 200240;
2. 中国电力科学研究院 北京 100192;
3. 阿尔斯通电网集团研究与技术中心 斯塔福德 ST17 4LK 英国
A Three-Point Estimate Method for Solving Probabilistic Load Flow Based on Inverse Nataf Transformation
Zhang Libo1, Cheng Haozhong1, Zeng Pingliang2, Yao Liangzhong2, Masoud Bazargan3
1. Key Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Conversion of Ministry of Education Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai 200240 China;
2. China Electric Power Research Institute Beijing 100192 China;
3. ALSTOM Grid Research & Technology Stafford ST17 4LX UK
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摘要 随着风电接入容量的增加,不仅需要考虑大规模风电出力随机性和间歇性对电力系统的影响,还需考虑由不同风电场的风速相关性导致的风电场出力相关性给电力系统带来的影响。利用Nataf变换及逆变换建立多维标准正态空间与多维非正态空间的关系,通过Nataf逆变换可以将独立标准正态空间的采样点转换到相关的非正态变量空间中。通过引入Nataf逆变换,提出可以处理非正态分布随机变量相关性的概率潮流三点估计法。IEEE RTS 24节点系统和IEEE 118节点系统的算例表明算法计算速度快,可以精确地给出输出变量的期望值和标准差。
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张立波
程浩忠
曾平良
姚良忠
Masoud Bazargan
关键词 概率潮流 Nataf逆变换 相关性 三点估计法    
Abstract:With the increasing penetration of wind sources, not only the fluctuation and intermittency of wind power, but also the correlations among wind farms should be considered in power system analysis. Nataf transformation and inverse Nataf transformation establish the relationship between independent standard normal space and correlated non-normal space. By incorporating inverse Nataf transformation, this paper proposed a novel three-point estimate method to solve the probabilistic load flow problems considering correlations among input variables. Accuracy and efficiency of the proposed algorithm has been validated by the comparative tests in a modified IEEE RTS 24 bus system and a modified IEEE 118 bus system.
Key wordsProbabilistic load flow    inverse Nataf transformation    correlation    three-point estimate method   
收稿日期: 2014-04-07      出版日期: 2016-04-01
PACS: TM732  
基金资助:国家自然科学基金重点项目(51337005)和国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2014CB23903)资助
通讯作者: 张立波 男,1988年生,博士研究生,研究方向为电力系统规划。E-mail: sjtu_zhanglibo@163.com   
作者简介: 程浩忠 男,1962年生,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为电力系统规划、电能质量、无功和电压稳定性。E-mail: hzcheng@sjtu.edu.cn
引用本文:   
张立波, 程浩忠, 曾平良, 姚良忠, Masoud Bazargan. 基于Nataf逆变换的概率潮流三点估计法[J]. 电工技术学报, 2016, 31(6): 187-194. Zhang Libo, Cheng Haozhong, Zeng Pingliang, Yao Liangzhong, Masoud Bazargan. A Three-Point Estimate Method for Solving Probabilistic Load Flow Based on Inverse Nataf Transformation. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2016, 31(6): 187-194.
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