Abstract：Because of the significant impact of temperature factors on load in summer, sustained hot weather will cause the temperature cumulative effect, resulting in a certain degree of abnormal growth of load. The traditional short-term load forecasting method is difficult to meet the actual demand. Therefore, temperature modifying formula is proposed in order to reflect the influence of temperature cumulative effect. Through fitting temperature-load curve and solving load temperature elastic coefficient, the limit temperature of scorching weather day is determined. Meanwhile, a new method is proposed to solve maximum cumulative days and cumulative effect coefficient using correlation coefficient. It is proved by a case study that the method proposed can accurately reflect the impact of the temperature cumulative effect and improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting.
高赐威,李倩玉,苏卫华,李扬. 短期负荷预测中考虑积温效应的温度修正模型研究[J]. 电工技术学报, 2015, 30(4): 242-248.
Gao Ciwei,Li Qianyu,Su Weihua,Li Yang. Temperature Correction Model Research Considering Temperature Cumulative Effect in Short-Term Load Forecasting. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2015, 30(4): 242-248.
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