串联系统的可靠性评估方法

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Abstract In order to evaluate the reliability of some object, firstly, a great deal of initial information relating with the reliability of the object must be obtained. In the information, perhaps there are many kinds of uncertainty, including randomness, fuzziness, imperfect credibility, ignorance and so on. However, the evaluation methods used at present not only can not deal with all kinds of uncertainties synchronously but also can not reflect all kinds of uncertainties synthetically in the evaluation result. Therefore, an evaluation method based on dempster-shafer evidential theory (called D-S evidential theory) is proposed in this paper to solve the above problems. This method is suitable for any object with independent function, and its main feature is that an evidence is established according to each evaluation index, and the evaluation result is obtained by combining the evidences. Adequate pre-processing and post-processing are done for the combination of evidences so as to avoid loss of information, and ensure the reasonableness of the evaluation result. Furthermore, a method used to evaluate the reliability of a series system is proposed on the base of the above work.

Key words： Object with independent function reliability evaluation uncertainty D-S evidential theory series system

Received: 20 February 2010 Published: 07 March 2014

PACS:

TB114.3

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	Li Zhigang
	Li Lingling

Cite this article:

Li Zhigang,Li Lingling. A Method of Evaluating the Reliability of Series Systems[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2011, 26(1): 146-153.

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http://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/EN/ OR http://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/EN/Y2011/V26/I1/146

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