环氧/纸复合材料直流耐压寿命模型的估计方法

doi:10.19595/j.cnki.1000-6753.tces.190066

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摘要针对适用于干式套管的环氧/纸复合材料的绝缘耐压性能进行了研究。首先运用蒙特卡罗仿真方法对耐压试验方法的选择进行研究,分析并对比不同参数估计方法、不同大小样本、无截尾耐压试验和截尾耐压试验下各种参数估计方法的误差,建议选用截尾耐压试验方法进行试验,采用加权最小二乘法进行参数估计。然后,对环氧/纸复合材料的长期绝缘性能——耐压特性进行试验研究。试验结果表明,环氧/纸复合材料试样的耐压试验结果符合Weibull分布,该文建立的环氧/纸复合材料的寿命模型可为套管绝缘材料结构设计提供技术支持。

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关键词 ：环氧/纸复合材料, 耐压特性, 寿命模型, 定数截尾, 参数估计

Abstract：The insulated withstanding voltage performance of epoxy/paper composites for dry-type bushing was studied in this paper. Firstly, modeling and simulations were made through Mote Carlo method to analyze the errors of parameter estimation under different parameter estimation methods, different sample sizes, non-censored withstanding test and Type-II censored withstanding test. It was suggested to use the experimental method of tail-end withstanding voltage and the weighted least squares method. Next, the long-term insulating properties, i.e. the withstanding voltage properties of epoxy/paper composites, were experimentally studied. The results show that the voltage withstanding test of epoxy/paper composites follows Weibull distribution and the established lifetime model of epoxy/paper composites can provide technical support for the insulation structural design of bushing.

Key words： Epoxy/paper material withstand characteristic life model Type-II censoring parameter estimation

收稿日期: 2019-01-08 出版日期: 2019-09-26

PACS:

TM215.92

基金资助:国家自然科学基金（51707141）和陕西省自然科学基础研究计划（018JQ5049）资助项目

通讯作者: 曹雯女,1983年生,博士,副教授,研究方向为电力设备状态监测与诊断、绝缘材料测试等。E-mail: cyw.winnie@qq.com

作者简介: 宋倩文女,1995年生,硕士研究生,研究方向为绝缘缺陷的故障诊断。E-mail: 1622733524@qq.com

引用本文:

曹雯, 宋倩文, 申巍, 吕泽鹏, 朱永灿. 环氧/纸复合材料直流耐压寿命模型的估计方法[J]. 电工技术学报, 2019, 34(18): 3750-3758. Cao Wen, Song Qianwen, Shen Wei, Lü Zepeng, Zhu Yongcan. Estimation Methods of DC Withstand Voltage Lifetime Model for Epoxy/Paper Composites. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2019, 34(18): 3750-3758.

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