含风电接入的发输电系统风险评估

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摘要考虑风速的随机性、风电机组的功率特性、风机运行条件、风机的降额运行状态、风电场升压变压器和高压输电线路故障率等因素的影响,建立了风电场可靠性模型。针对风电接入情况下传统评估方法样本容量大、效率低等不足,提出了基于分散抽样蒙特卡洛算法的含风电场发输电系统风险评估方法,此抽样算法将[0,1]区间分成若干子区间,在抽样后分别对每个子区间进行系统状态判断和指标计算,从而增加故障状态的抽样频率,提高抽样效率,在满足精度要求下,有效地减少了抽样次数。针对风电的随机性和间歇性等特点,给出了关于风电接入系统的风险指标,该指标能分别反映风电接入对发电系统和输电系统的影响。通过对改进IEEE-RTS79算例的计算分析验证了所提评估方法和指标的有效性。

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关键词 ：蒙特卡洛仿真, 风险评估, 发输电系统, 分散抽样, 风电

Abstract：The reliability model of the wind farm is established considering the randomness of the wind speed, the power characteristics of the wind turbine, wind turbine operation conditions, derating operating status, step-up transformer and high-voltage transmission line failure rate and other factors. Because the traditional assessment method has large sample size and low efficiency for large-scale wind power penetration, the new assessment method for generation and transmission systems with large-scale wind power based on scattered sampling monte-carlo technique is proposed in this paper. This method has [0,1] interval divided into several sub-interval in which the system index can be calculated independently which indirectly increase the sampling frequency of the fault condition. So the scattered sampling Monte-Carlo method could reduce sample times and enhance sampling efficiency. According to the random and intermittent of wind power, the risk indexes which fully reflect the impact of power generation and transmission systems are given. The calculation and analysis of improved IEEE-RTS 79 reliability test systems show that the proposed algorithm is effective.

Key words： Monte-Carlo simulation risk assessment power generation and transmission system scattered sampling technique wind power

收稿日期: 2013-01-18 出版日期: 2014-06-18

PACS:

TM712

基金资助:国家高技术研究发展计划（863计划）资助项目（2012AA050201）

作者简介: 蒋程男,1986年生,博士研究生,研究方向为电力系统分析与控制、电力系统安全和可靠性分析。刘文霞女,1967年生,副教授,研究方向为电力系统分析与控制、电力系统安全和可靠性分析,电力系统自动化智能规划、电力系统通信。

引用本文:

蒋程, 刘文霞, 张建华, 俞悦, 余加喜, 刘德先. 含风电接入的发输电系统风险评估[J]. 电工技术学报, 2014, 29(2): 260-270. Jiang Cheng, Liu Wenxia, Zhang Jianhua, Yu Yue, Yu Jiaxi, Liu Dexian. Risk Assessment of Generation and Transmission Systems Considering Wind Power Penetration. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2014, 29(2): 260-270.

链接本文:

http://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/CN/Y2014/V29/I2/260

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