Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society  2018, Vol. 33 Issue (22): 5233-5243    DOI: 10.19595/j.cnki.1000-6753.tces.171363
Orginal Article Current Issue| Next Issue| Archive| Adv Search |
The Prediction Method of Monitoring Quantities of Electromagnetic Emission System
Teng Teng, Zhao Zhihua
National Key Laboratory of Science and Technology on Vessel Integrated Power System Naval University of Engineering Wuhan 430205 China

Download: PDF (40327 KB)   HTML (1 KB) 
Export: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)      
Abstract  The numerical prediction of the main state of the equipment is one of the most significant parts of prognostic and health management (PHM) study. Taken the stator temperature of a segment - powered linear motor in an electromagnetic launch system as an example, the multiple time scales prediction of stator temperature is achieved respectively based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, Kalman filtering model, back propagation (BP) neural network model and a new nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARX) model with external input of working conditions. The ARIMA model provides the basis for determining the number of orders in time series data analysis for the other three models. With the test data different from training data, the four methods are compared and the multiple time scales prediction results are obtained. For short-term temperature predictions up to 1 minute, all four methods have better effects; for moderate to long-term predictions from 1 minute to 4 minutes, the NARX neural network method with the working condition information has advantages; all four methods do not have the predictive ability of more than 4 minutes for the stator temperature prediction of the segment - powered linear motor.
Key words： Electromagnetic emission system      segment-powered linear motor      prediction of monitoring quantities      nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARX)      working condition information     
Received: 25 September 2017      Published: 27 November 2018
PACS: TM76  
Service
E-mail this article
Add to my bookshelf
Add to citation manager
E-mail Alert
RSS
Articles by authors
Teng Teng
Zhao Zhihua
Cite this article:   
Teng Teng,Zhao Zhihua. The Prediction Method of Monitoring Quantities of Electromagnetic Emission System[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2018, 33(22): 5233-5243.
URL:  
https://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/EN/10.19595/j.cnki.1000-6753.tces.171363     OR     https://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/EN/Y2018/V33/I22/5233
Copyright © Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society
Supported by: Beijing Magtech