基于RBF代理模型与动态柔性响应的虚拟电厂电-碳-绿多市场协同博弈

doi:10.19595/j.cnki.1000-6753.tces.260887

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Abstract

In the coupled environment of electricity, carbon trading, and green certificate markets, virtual power plant (VPP) alliances need to improve their low-carbon economic operation capability while coordinating multi-market signals and stakeholder interests. To address multi-stakeholder coordination, carbon and green certificate compliance, and computational burden in VPP alliance operation, a bi-level hybrid game framework based on a radial basis function (RBF) surrogate model and dynamic flexible-load response was established. The framework models the leader-follower pricing interaction between a distribution system operator (DSO) and a VPP alliance, together with cooperation among VPP members, and couples electricity trading, carbon responsibility transfer, green certificate attribute circulation, flexible-load response, and benefit allocation.
At the upper level, the DSO optimized time-of-use buying and selling prices by balancing three goals: DSO revenue, VPP alliance cost, and cooperative surplus. At the lower level, the VPP alliance minimized its total operating cost by coordinating renewable generation, controllable units, storage, hydrogen-linked devices, flexible loads, peer-to-peer (P2P) electricity sharing, carbon responsibility and green certificate settlement, and surplus allocation. In P2P trading, power flows carried carbon responsibility and green certificate attributes, so carbon deficits, green certificate deficits, and internal settlement prices were updated with alliance clearing results. A multi-attribute-pressure-driven flexible-load response model was constructed, in which electricity price pressure, carbon responsibility pressure, and green certificate compliance pressure updated the response boundaries of interruptible, shiftable, and air-conditioning loads. A Nash-Shapley contribution allocation method was used to assign cooperative surplus according to electricity sharing, carbon attribute, green certificate attribute, and flexibility contributions. To improve solution efficiency, the RBF surrogate model fitted the nonlinear mapping between upper-level prices and lower-level alliance responses. The non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm III with differential evolution (NSGA-III-DE) was used for upper-level multi-objective price search, while the alternating direction method of multipliers coordinated lower-level dispatch, P2P clearing, and surplus allocation. Pareto solutions screened by the RBF model were rechecked with the original lower-level model, and the final compromise solution was selected by the normalized ideal-point distance method.
Case studies with one DSO and three VPPs were conducted. The mean absolute percentage errors of the three objective predictions were below 1%. Compared with the meta-heuristic direct search method, the RBF-NSGA-III-DE method reduced lower-level model calls by 80.94% and computational time by 79.58%, with a comprehensive objective deviation of 1.79%. Compared with the scenario without cooperative game and P2P interaction, the complete hybrid game strategy reduced the VPP alliance cost by 45.38%. Meanwhile, the carbon deficit and net green certificate deficit decreased by 9.79% and 38.73%, respectively. After the multi-attribute pressure mechanism was introduced, the total flexible-load response increased by 160.61%.
These results indicate that the framework reduces repeated lower-level optimization calls, coordinates electricity-carbon-green certificate attributes in alliance trading, and improves the consistency between contribution and cooperative benefit allocation under the tested market-coupling scenarios. Further extension can focus on rolling multi-timescale coordination by incorporating intertemporal carbon and green certificate pool states and distribution-network constraints.

Key words： Virtual power plant electricity-carbon-green certificate multi-market coupling bi-level hybrid game RBF surrogate model dynamic flexible response

Received: 04 June 2026

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	Tang Jingyu
	Jin Hongyang
	Zhao Yan
	Li Yucai
	Yang Pengyue

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Tang Jingyu,Jin Hongyang,Zhao Yan等. Coordinated Game-Based Operation of Virtual Power Plant Alliances in Electricity-Carbon-Green Certificate Markets Based on an RBF Surrogate Model and Dynamic Flexible-Load Response[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 0, (): 260887-.

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