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| Futures-Spot Trading Strategy for Coal-Fired Power Plants Considering Linked Gaming in Coal-Electricity Markets |
| Tian Haoxin, Chen Yanbo, Qiang Tuben, Chen Zeyu, Zhang Zhi |
| State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources North China Electric Power University Beijing 102206 China |
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Abstract During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the state implemented a continuous policy of cutting overcapacity in the coal industry, which led to a mismatch between coal production capacity and coal demand during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. As a result, coal prices continued to rise from 2021 to 2022. Meanwhile, the installed capacity of renewable energy in our country has been increasing year by year. The massive influx of “green electricity” has further compressed the profit margins of thermal power enterprises in the electricity energy market. Under the new round of coal market and power market environment, coal-fired power enterprises are confronted with multiple pressures such as rising coal prices, falling electricity prices and reduced power generation. Coal-fired power enterprises need to enhance their integrated management and control capabilities over both upstream coal market transactions and downstream power market transactions. How to formulate the optimal trading strategy and increase the profits of coal-fired power enterprises in both the coal market and the power market is the core issue in the cost control field of coal-fired power enterprises. The mutual influence between the decision-making results of the coal market and the clearing results of the electricity market, the pricing game process among power generators, and the settlement rules of futures trading are all issues that need to be urgently addressed. Therefore, studying the integrated futures and spot trading strategies in the coal-electricity market is of great significance for improving the market competitiveness of coal-fired power enterprises and reducing their operational risks.
To this end, a futures-spot trading strategy for coal-fired power plants considering linked gaming in coal-electricity markets is developed. First, the worst-case trading environment for coal-fired power plants is obtained through a bidding decision model of rival power generators under marginal unit conditions. Next, the grey wolf optimization algorithm based on strengthening the hierarchy of wolves is used to solve the trading decision model of coal-fired power plants in coal-electricity markets. Finally, the effectiveness of the strategy is verified through case studies.
The following conclusions are drawn: (1) Compared with the traditional single-domain market decision-making, the trading strategy of coal-fired power plants proposed in this paper is a more complex portfolio optimization problem. By solving the pricing game trading model of coal-fired power plants considering the linkage of the coal-electricity market, it can help coal-fired power plants obtain the integrated optimal trading strategy under the coal-electricity market, thereby enhancing the integrated operation and management capabilities of enterprises. (2) To obtain the most severe trading environment for coal-fired power plants, the counterparty power generator bidding decision model considering the marginal unit situation proposed in this paper can effectively narrow the decision domain of the counterparty power generator's quotation variable, reduce the difficulty of solving the master-slave game bidding model, and thereby help coal-fired power plants make robust decisions. (3) Considering the risks of spot trading, the futures-spot trading model in the coal-electricity market proposed in this paper can formulate more conservative trading strategies and enhance the risk management and control capabilities of coal-fired power plants by introducing futures trading in the electricity market trading section. It provides coal-fired power plants with revenue settlement tools and risk control tools in the decision-making process of coal-electricity market transactions.
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Received: 09 July 2025
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2026, Vol. 41 
