山区输电线路雷击跳闸预警的融合算法研究

doi:10.19595/j.cnki.1000-6753.tces.212132

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摘要如何准确预警雷击引起的线路跳闸事故是长期困扰电力运行部门的重要难题,而现有的线路雷击跳闸预警技术未能充分考虑区域雷电活动特征与雷击线路的物理过程,存在预警准确率低、虚报率高的问题。该文在已广泛应用的雷电活动短时预警技术基础上,提出一种融合蒙特卡罗法与雷电先导分形模型的输电线路雷击跳闸预警算法。该算法充分考虑了雷电活动特征、雷击线路物理过程与线路走廊微地形条件,一方面依据区域雷电活动监测数据,拟合得到了地闪频次随海拔高度的变化规律与雷电流幅值累积概率分布函数,并以此构建了蒙特卡罗法所需的目标分布样本,从而模拟了雷电流幅值与落雷位置在一定区域内的分布情况;另一方面采用雷电先导分形模型,实现了对雷电先导发展路径随机性与确定性相统一的物理过程的模拟,从而充分考虑了微地形条件对雷击线路物理过程的影响。同时,在该算法的基础上构建了输电线路雷击跳闸概率数据库,形成了雷击跳闸预警系统。该系统在云南电网的运行经验表明,2021年雷雨季节的雷击跳闸预警中,预警准确率为87%,有助于电网相关部门提前采取有针对性的预防措施。

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关键词 ：蒙特卡罗法, 雷电先导分形模型, 雷电活动特征, 雷击跳闸预警

Abstract：Relevant statistics show that lightning strikes are the main reason for the tripping of transmission lines, and the damage is relatively large. Research on lightning trip early warning of the transmission lines can help the power grid operation and maintenance departments to take targeted preventive measures in advance to ensure the safe and stable operation of the power grid. However, the existing line lightning trip early warning technology fails to fully consider the characteristics of regional lightning activities and the physical process of lightning stroke lines, which has the problems of low early warning accuracy and high false alarm rate. Therefore, this paper proposes a transmission line lightning trip early warning algorithm that combines the Monte-Carlo method and the lightning leader fractal model to solve the above problems.
The algorithm fully considers the characteristics of lightning activity, the physical process of lightning strike lines and the micro-topography conditions of line corridors. On the one hand, according to the monitoring data of regional lightning activity, the variation law of ground flash frequency with altitude and the cumulative probability distribution function of lightning current amplitude are fitted, and the target distribution samples required by Monte-Carlo method are constructed, so as to simulate the distribution of lightning current amplitude and lightning location in a certain area. On the other hand, the fractal model of lightning leader is used to simulate the physical process of the unification of the randomness and certainty of the development path of lightning leader, which fully considers the influence of micro terrain conditions on the physical process of lightning lines. At the same time, based on the algorithm, the lightning trip-out probability database of transmission lines is constructed, and the lightning trip-out warning system is formed. The specific algorithm flow is as follows: Monte-Carlo method and lightning leader fractal model are combined to simulate and calculate the lightning trip probability of transmission lines with different voltage levels (110 kV, 220 kV, 500 kV) under different lightning current amplitudes and different micro-topography conditions, forming a lightning trip probability database. The input condition is determined by the lightning current amplitude randomly generated by the lightning activity short-term warning system data. According to the input condition and the lightning trip probability database, the lightning trip probability of each lightning is determined. Calculate the lightning trip probability of the line in the next 2 hours in the early warning area, and judge whether to issue a lightning trip warning according to the set lightning trip probability threshold.
Finally, the lightning trip early warning system was applied to Yunnan power grid for example verification and early warning performance evaluation. The demonstration application in Yunnan power grid showed that the early warning accuracy rate was 87%, the missed alarm rate was 12%, and the false alarm rate was 7%. The false alarm rate was significantly reduced, which has a good early warning effect and can help relevant power grid departments to make targeted preventive measures in advance, reduce the risk and loss of lightning trip.

Key words： Mont-Carlo method lightning leader fractal model characteristics of lightning activity lightning strike trip warning

收稿日期: 2021-12-29

PACS:	TM726.1
	TM863

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目（51777020）

通讯作者: 袁涛男,1976年生,副教授,博士生导师,研究方向为电力系统过电压防护及防雷接地技术、电磁兼容技术。E-mail：yuantao_cq@cqu.edu.cn

作者简介: 王肖田男,1997年生,硕士,研究方向为输电线路防雷技术。E-mail：wxtian@cqu.edu.cn

引用本文:

袁涛, 王肖田, 司马文霞, 孙魄韬, 周仿荣. 山区输电线路雷击跳闸预警的融合算法研究[J]. 电工技术学报, 2023, 38(9): 2528-2540. Yuan Tao, Wang Xiaotian, Sima Wenxia, Sun Potao, Zhou Fangrong. Research on Fusion Algorithm of Lightning Strike Trip Warning for Mountain Transmission Lines. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2023, 38(9): 2528-2540.

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