触点动态接触电阻时间序列混沌预测

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摘要触点电接触性能的稳定性直接影响继电器乃至整个系统的可靠性,而接触电阻是表征触点电接触性能的重要参数之一,基于混沌理论对触点动态接触电阻峰值时间序列进行分析,并验证了混沌预测的有效性。首先对动态接触电阻峰值时间序列数据进行相空间重构,确定了接触电阻序列的最佳嵌入维数m和延迟时间τ。在说明动态接触电阻峰值时间序列具有混沌特性的基础上,根据最大Lyapunov指数对触点动态接触电阻峰值时间序列进行了混沌预测,并给出了混沌预测的可靠范围。预测结果与试验数据对比发现,混沌预测短期效果较好。本文分析了触点动态接触电阻峰值时间序列的混沌特性,为触点电接触可靠性研究提供了新思路。

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	李玲玲
	马东娟
	李志刚

关键词 ：动态接触电阻, 时间序列, 最大Lyapunov指数, 混沌预测

Abstract：The stability of electrical contact performance directly affects the reliability of relays even the whole system, while contact resistance is one of the important indicators that on behalf of electrical contact performance. The study based on chaotic theory is carried out for dynamic contact resistance time series, and the effectiveness of chaotic prediction is verified. The phase space for dynamic contact resistance peak value time series is reconstructed and the optimal embedding dimension m and delay time τ are confirmed. On the premise that the dynamic contact resistance peak value series is confirmed to own chaotic features, then the chaotic prediction and the reliable scope is presented based on the largest Lyapunov exponent. A contrast between the prediction value and measured value indicates that the chaotic short-term prediction is an effective way. The chaotic characteristics of the dynamic contact resistance peak value time series are analyzed, and the method employed here provides a new method for studying the electrical contact reliability.

Key words： Dynamic contact resistance time series the largest Lyapunov exponent chaotic prediction

收稿日期: 2013-12-06 出版日期: 2014-11-05

PACS:

TM581.3

基金资助:国家自然科学基金（61072100、51377044）,天津市自然科学基金（12JCYBJC12400）,河北省高等学校科学技术研究重点（ZD2010119）和河北省高等学校创新团队领军人才培育计划（LJRC003）资助项目

作者简介: 李玲玲女,1968年生,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为低压电器可靠性与产品智能设计；马东娟女,1987年生,博士研究生,研究方向为低压电器可靠性。

引用本文:

李玲玲, 马东娟, 李志刚. 触点动态接触电阻时间序列混沌预测[J]. 电工技术学报, 2014, 29(9): 187-193. Li Lingling, Ma Dongjuan, Li Zhigang. Chaotic Predication of Dynamic Contact Resistance Times Series on Contacts. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2014, 29(9): 187-193.

链接本文:

http://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/CN/Y2014/V29/I9/187

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