Ultra-Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Dual Decomposition Strategy
Li Nan1,2, Wang Hetong2, Zhang Guangyao3, Jin Chunxi4, Zhu Yabin5
1. Key Laboratory of Modern Power System Simulation and Control & Renewable Energy Technology Ministry of Education Northeast Electric Power University Jilin 132012 China; 2. School of Electrical Engineering Northeast Electric Power University Jilin 132012 China; 3. State Grid Shandong Electric Extrahigh Voltage Company Jinan 250000 China; 4. Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Co. Ltd Hefei 230022 China; 5. State Grid Shaanxi Electric Power Company Limited Xianyang Power Supply Company Xianyang 712000 China
Abstract：High renewable energy penetration accentuates the non-stationarity, nonlinearity, and randomness of power system loads, challenging power grid transient stability and planning. Accurate ultra-short-term load forecasting (USTLF) is thereby indispensable for the transient stability analysis of power systems. This study proposes a new USTLF method that integrates a dual decomposition strategy for data preprocessing with a hybrid multi-scale temporal convolutional network and bidirectional long short-term memory (MSTCN-BiLSTM) model for prediction. Firstly, a dual decomposition strategy integrating empirical wavelet transform-frequency domain stability (EWT-FreqStab) and seasonal trend dispersion reminder (STDR) is proposed. Specifically, the empirical wavelet transform (EWT) adaptively decomposes load data into frequency sub-bands, while frequency-domain stability weighting effectively suppresses non-stationary effects in high-frequency components. Secondly, STDR algorithm accurately captures dual daily-weekly periodic patterns and extracts fluctuation-associated dispersion components. These decomposed elements, when combined with strongly correlated meteorological data, form a multivariate dataset enriched with multi-scale input features. Finally, a MSTCN-BiLSTM architecture is designed: this architecture utilizes multi-scale temporal convolutional layers with different dilation rates for local and global feature extraction, integrates a multi-head attention mechanism to dynamically weight meaningful patterns, incorporates bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) units to enhance the modeling of long-term temporal dependencies, and ultimately accomplishes the prediction task. This study presents simulation results derived from annual load data across domestic and international regions during the 2021-2022 period. The dataset is split into training and test sets with a ratio of 7:3. To fully validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a comparative experimental framework is developed from four distinct perspectives, which includes the following aspects: (1) An analysis of the impact of input window length on model performance. (2) A performance comparison between the proposed model and other mainstream forecasting models. (3) Comparative experiments examining the same prediction models integrated with the dual decomposition strategy versus those adopting traditional decomposition methods. (4) A comparative analysis of the dual decomposition strategy combined with different prediction models. The experimental results demonstrate that when the input window length is 4, the innovative dual decomposition strategy, in conjunction with the MSTCN-BiLSTM prediction model, achieves outstanding performance metrics. Specifically, on the domestic dataset, it yields a MAE of 19.975 MW, a RMSE of 27.099 MW, and a MAPE of 0.831%. For the international dataset, the corresponding metrics are 24.373 MW (MAE), 32.492 MW (RMSE), and 0.392% (MAPE). The following conclusions can be drawn from the simulation analysis: (1) The STDR decomposition algorithm performs multi-scale decomposition on load data, generating four-dimensional temporal-scale components that contain discrete fluctuation information characterizing periodic patterns. Building on this, the EWT-FreqStab algorithm further decomposes the load data into stable and effective multi-dimensional time-frequency components. Subsequently, these components are integrated with meteorological data of high correlation to construct a multivariate component matrix, thereby achieving comprehensive characterization of the multi-dimensional information inherent in the load data. (2) The proposed MSTCN-BiLSTM network effectively integrates feature information across diverse time scales through a series-parallel TCN architecture. The embedded multi-head attention mechanism strengthens the model's capacity to capture critical features, while the bidirectional temporal modeling capability of BiLSTM establishes a feature extraction framework that balances short-term details and long-term dependencies—thereby offering an effective technical pathway for enhancing the accuracy of ultra-short-term load forecasting.
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2026, Vol. 41 
