Photovoltaic Power Interval Prediction Based on KAN-MHA and Asymmetric Conformal Quantile Regression
Li Song1,2, Xia Chengjun1,2, Liu Yifu1,2, Wang Yukang1,2
1. School of Electric Power South China University of Technology Guangzhou 510640 China; 2. Guangdong Provincial New Energy Power System Intelligent Operation and Control Enterprise Key Laboratory Guangzhou 510663 China
Abstract：First, this paper systematically reviews the basic principles of conformal prediction (CP), quantile regression-based prediction (QR), and conformal quantile regression (CQR). It is noted that when the original QR prediction intervals exhibit pronounced asymmetric bias, the symmetric calibration strategy used by CQR unnecessarily inflates the interval width. To address this issue, this paper proposes an asymmetric conformal quantile regression method (ACQR). In ACQR, the calibration residuals are split into two sets of nonconformity scores for the lower and upper bounds, respectively. Correction terms are then extracted by quantile and used to asymmetrically shift the bounds. In this way, the method aims to eliminate asymmetric bias and shrink the ineffective parts of the interval, while satisfying the desired coverage level. This paper discusses the impact of the QR model’s fitting capability on the width of the final prediction interval. Improving the QR model’s fitting accuracy is a prerequisite for obtaining tight prediction intervals, thereby motivating the proposed KAN-MHA model. The structure of KAN-MHA is then described: using KAN as the basic building block, the model comprises a spatial feature-extraction module, a temporal feature-extraction module, and a fully connected layer that fuses spatial and temporal features to produce the predicted power. Results from two real-world cases demonstrate that the proposed KAN-MHA+ACQR method achieves excellent prediction accuracy and interval tightness. In Case 1, meteorological features are strongly correlated with PV power, indicating that numerical weather prediction is relatively accurate. At the 80% and 90% confidence levels for QR-based prediction, the mean interval width (PINAW) of KAN-MHA is significantly smaller than those of the CNN-BiLSTM, LagBoostNet, ASMNet, and KAN models, achieving approximately 38%~47% interval compression. In Case 2, the correlation between meteorological features and power is weaker, representing scenarios with larger numerical weather prediction errors. Although the overall prediction accuracy of all models decreases, KAN-MHA still achieves the best performance. A further comparison between ACQR and CQR shows that in the vast majority of experimental settings, ACQR yields lower PINAW than CQR, and in the best case, PINAW can be reduced to 90.6% of that obtained by CQR. Visualization results indicate that, compared with CQR, ACQR’s upper and lower bounds of the prediction intervals are more symmetric and better aligned with the actual power distribution. The following conclusions can be drawn. (1) Compared with CQR, the proposed ACQR method can effectively reduce the prediction interval width while ensuring the required coverage, thereby alleviating the interval inflation problem caused by asymmetric bias. (2) The proposed KAN-MHA model achieves tighter and more reliable prediction intervals across different case studies. (3) The combination of the KAN-MHA model with the ACQR method provides reliable and compact short-term PV power prediction intervals. This paper offers an effective and valuable new approach for engineering applications of short-term interval prediction of PV power.
李嵩, 夏成军, 刘译夫, 汪愉康. 基于KAN-MHA和非对称共形分位数回归的光伏功率短期区间预测[J]. 电工技术学报, 2026, 41(18): 6336-6350.
Li Song, Xia Chengjun, Liu Yifu, Wang Yukang. Photovoltaic Power Interval Prediction Based on KAN-MHA and Asymmetric Conformal Quantile Regression. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2026, 41(18): 6336-6350.
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2026, Vol. 41 
