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| A Novel Multi-Step Prediction for Wind Speed Based on EMD |
| Liu Xingjie1, Mi Zengqiang1, Yang Qixun1, Fan Xiaowei2 |
| 1. North China Electrical Power University Baoding 071003 China 2. Chengde Power Supply Corporation Chengde 067000 China |
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Abstract Aiming at the nonlinearity and nonstationarity of wind speed sequences, a novel multi-step prediction for wind speed is presented. The prediction is primarily based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD). By means of the EMD technique, the original wind speed sequences are firstly decomposed into a series of functions with more stationary variation. Thus the interferences among the characteristic information embedded in the wind speed can be weakened. Then these functions are reconstructed into three components(high-middle-low frequency components) according to their run-lengths. As a result, not only the characteristics become more centralized, but the predicted components can be greatly reduced. After that, three multi-step prediction models are built on the basis of their respective variation rules. Finally, the prediction values corresponded to the three components are adaptively superposed to obtain the predicted wind speed. A real example is given in this paper. The obtained results show that the proposed approach possesses higher accuracy and the prediction performance is satisfied when the wind speed sharply fluctuates.
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Received: 19 August 2009
Published: 04 March 2014
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2010, Vol. 25 
