基于改进的D-S证据理论的中长期负荷预测方法

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Abstract A medium and long-term load forecasting model is proposed for power system, which is based on improved evidence theory. Evidential theory is able to integrate lots of information provided by different evidential source, which helps to make correct analysis and decisions. The combination rules of Dempster and Yager are used here to mix various basic forecasting methods. Expert advice is considered to be part of the model, so that the improved forecasting model is more meaningful practically, and the load forecasting accuracy has been improved apparently. Using this method to study one provincial grid in china, the results prove the validity of the method presented in this paper.

Key words： Medium and long term load forecasting evidential theory probability assignment of belief degree expert experience

Received: 23 June 2010 Published: 20 March 2014

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TM715

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	Articles by authors
	Wu Yaowu
	Lou Suhua
	Lu Siyu
	Qiao Hui
	Kang Futian

Cite this article:

Wu Yaowu,Lou Suhua,Lu Siyu等. The Medium and Long-Term Load Forecasting Based on Improved D-S Evidential Theory[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2012, 27(8): 157-162.

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http://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/EN/ OR http://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/EN/Y2012/V27/I8/157

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