计及节能风险评估的随机规划购电模型

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摘要针对确定性的节能评估无法完全满足随机环境下节能降耗管理工作的需要,在节能电力市场模式下建立了计及节能风险评估的电网公司随机规划购电模型。首先,考虑节能电力市场中市场交易网损和煤耗因素,建立了机组单位交易电量节能效益评估指标。在此基础上,借鉴经济学投资组合理论中半绝对离差风险的概念,考虑市场电价、水电机组电量生产和系统负荷电量需求的随机性,建立了电网公司市场购电节能风险评估指标。然后,为实现电网公司市场购电节能风险的优化管理,在随机规划的理论框架内构建了计及节能风险评估的购电模型。模型采用内嵌目标相对占优和Monte-Carlo随机模拟技术的遗传算法求解。最后,以某省级电网公司为例仿真验证了所提节能风险评估指标与购电模型的有效性。

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关键词 ：电力市场, 节能风险, 评估指标, 购电模型, 遗传算法

Abstract：To respond to the situation that the deterministic energy-saving assessment can not fully meet the requirements of energy-saving management in stochastic environment, a novel stochastic programming power purchasing model of power grid corporation considering energy-saving benefit risk assessment in energy-saving electricity markets is presented in this paper. Firstly, considering transmission loss and coal consumption in trading,an energy-saving benefit assessment index of unit electric quantity is presented in energy-saving electricity markets; followed by an power purchasing energy-saving benefit risk index of power grid corporation which imports the concept of semi-absolute deviation risk in economics portfolio theory and considers the stochastic behavior of electricity price, hydroelectricity production and load demand in energy-saving electricity markets. Then, a power purchasing model of power grid corporation considering energy-saving benefit risk assessment is built in the framework of stochastic programming theory so as to meet energy-saving benefit risk optimal management in energy-saving electricity markets. The model is solved by a genetic algorithm embedded with Monte-Carlo simulation technique and objective relative dominant strategy. Finally, the simulation results of a real provincial power grid show the effectiveness of the proposed energy-saving benefit risk assessment index and power purchasing model.

Key words： Electricity market energy-saving risk assessment index power purchasing model genetic algorithm

收稿日期: 2013-06-03 出版日期: 2015-05-25

PACS:

TM73

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目（51177178）和输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室自主研究项目（2007DA10512710204）

作者简介: 文旭男,1980年生,博士,工程师,研究方向为电力系统优化运行与控制及风险评估,电力市场。颜伟男,1968年生,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为电力系统优化运行与控制及风险评估,电力市场。

引用本文:

文旭, 颜伟, 王俊梅, 钟璐, 郭琳, 余娟. 计及节能风险评估的随机规划购电模型[J]. 电工技术学报, 2015, 30(8): 193-201. Wen Xu, Yan Wei, Wang Junmei, Zhong Lu, Guo Lin, Yu Juan. A Stochastic Programming Power Purchasing Model Considering Energy-Saving Benefit Risk Assessment. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2015, 30(8): 193-201.

链接本文:

http://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/CN/Y2015/V30/I8/193

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