基于区间估计的风电出力多场景下静态电压安全域研究

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摘要提出一种建立风电多场景的新方法,用于计算发生概率较大的风电出力场景及该场景下的系统静态电压安全域边界。该方法依据风速的威布尔分布特性,能够在参数未知的情况下,利用实测风速的极大似然估计和Fisher信息矩阵,对风速的形状参数、尺度参数进行满足置信度α的区间估计,再根据Gamma函数与威布尔分布n阶矩阵的关系,来计算实际风速期望的近似区间,继而计算风电的出力水平;再依据该出力水平区间的上、下限求得能适应大部分风电扰动的基于割集功率空间的静态电压稳定域实用边界。最后通过实例验证该方法的实用性和有效性。

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	刘文颖
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	赵子兰
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	许园园

关键词 ： Weibull分布, 参数区间估计, 风电出力场景, 割集功率空间, 静态电压安全域

Abstract：The traditional Static voltage stability region(SVSR) is constructed by figuring out voltage critical points with continuous flow method under certain load increasing modes. And less consideration was taken on the influence of wind randomness to SVSR. This paper presents a novel method to establish wind power output scene, which is used in calculating the level of wind power output in greater probability and the boundaries of SVSR. On the basis of characteristics of Weibull distribution, This method can use maximum likelihood estimation of wind speed and Fisher information matrix to complete parameters’ interval estimation, including shape parameter and scale parameter, with satisfying confidence level α. Then according to the relationship between Gamma function and Weibull distribution k-th moment, this method can calculate approximate range of wind speed expectations. Furthermore, find out wind power output level and even the boundaries of SVSR in critical cut-set power space, which has the capacity of meeting most wind disturbance based on upper and lower limits of output level range. Finally, take the IEEE39 bus system for instance to prove the feasibility and effectiveness of the new method.

Key words： Distribution parameter interval estimation wind power scenario cut-set power space SVSR

收稿日期: 2014-07-22 出版日期: 2015-04-13

PACS:

TM614

基金资助:国家自然科学基金面上项目（51377053）,国家科技支撑计划（SQ2015BA0502239）和中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（JB2014168）资助项目

作者简介: 刘文颖女,1955年生,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为电力系统分析运行与控制。徐鹏男,1986年生,博士研究生,研究方向为电力系统分析、运行与控制,大电网安全预警及控制。

引用本文:

刘文颖,徐鹏,赵子兰,刘福潮,许园园. 基于区间估计的风电出力多场景下静态电压安全域研究[J]. 电工技术学报, 2015, 30(3): 172-178. Liu Wenying,Xu Peng,Zhao Zilan,Liu Fuchao,Xu Yuanyuan. A Research of Static Voltage Stability Region in Wind Power Scenario Based on Interval Estimation. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2015, 30(3): 172-178.

链接本文:

http://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/CN/Y2015/V30/I3/172

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