计及多个风场预测误差的电力系统风险快速计算方法

doi:10.19595/j.cnki.1000-6753.tces.200118

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Abstract As more and more wind farms are integrated in to power system, risk assessment based on enumeration method may take too much time to meet the computation time requirement of system operation because the enumeration method has combination explosion problem. With consideration of forecasting errors of multiple wind farms, this paper proposes a fast computation method for risk assessment. The paper clusters the input samples based on K-means. Cumulant and Gram-Charlier series expansion theory are applied to compute the cumulative distribution of node voltage and branch flow. According to the cumulative distribution, the probability of over-limit can be computed. Risk indices are computed by the product of the over limit probability and the impact. Case study on a practical power system demonstrates that the proposed method meets system operation's accuracy and time requirements.

Key words： Forecasting error operation risk cumulant probability distribution K-means

Received: 07 February 2020

PACS:	TM614
	TM732

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	Zhang Pei
	Tian Jiaxin
	Xie Hua

Cite this article:

Zhang Pei,Tian Jiaxin,Xie Hua. A Fast Risk Assessment Method with Consideration of Forecasting Errors of Multiple Wind Farms[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2021, 36(9): 1876-1887.

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https://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/EN/10.19595/j.cnki.1000-6753.tces.200118 OR https://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/EN/Y2021/V36/I9/1876

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