短期负荷预测中考虑积温效应的温度修正模型研究

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Abstract Because of the significant impact of temperature factors on load in summer, sustained hot weather will cause the temperature cumulative effect, resulting in a certain degree of abnormal growth of load. The traditional short-term load forecasting method is difficult to meet the actual demand. Therefore, temperature modifying formula is proposed in order to reflect the influence of temperature cumulative effect. Through fitting temperature-load curve and solving load temperature elastic coefficient, the limit temperature of scorching weather day is determined. Meanwhile, a new method is proposed to solve maximum cumulative days and cumulative effect coefficient using correlation coefficient. It is proved by a case study that the method proposed can accurately reflect the impact of the temperature cumulative effect and improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting.

Key words： Short-term load forecasting temperature cumulative effect load temperature elastic coefficient maximum cumulative days cumulative effect coefficient correlation coefficient

Received: 07 March 2013 Published: 13 April 2015

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TM714

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	Articles by authors
	Gao Ciwei
	Li Qianyu
	Su Weihua
	Li Yang

Cite this article:

Gao Ciwei,Li Qianyu,Su Weihua等. Temperature Correction Model Research Considering Temperature Cumulative Effect in Short-Term Load Forecasting[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2015, 30(4): 242-248.

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http://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/EN/ OR http://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/EN/Y2015/V30/I4/242

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