基于换电和电池租赁模式的纯电动汽车运营成本评估及预测研究

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Abstract In the pure electric bus (PEB) demonstration operation, the operation price measurement of power battery for PEB is an important prerequisite for carrying out the battery leasing mode, but there is no mature method till now. In this paper, the cost-plus-pricing method and annuity method are used to estimate the price of battery operation in the mode of naked car sales and the battery leasing mode and in the condition of charging station construction, while operation and battery leasing assumed by two main bodies. At the same time, in combination with the Beijing pure electric bus operation data, influence factor sensitivity analysis method is used to analyze the influence of battery system price, discount rate, the annual labor cost, annual amount of charging and initial investment of charging infrastructure on the price of power battery operation. The conclusion is drawn that the battery price and the amount of charging are the most sensitive factors of affecting the operation price. According to the small mature secondary lithium battery prices and fuel price trends of four consecutive years, the operating costs of electric bus and traditional bus in the next few four years are then predicted and compared. At last this paper puts forward the suggestion of future development of electric vehicles industry. Finally, the suggestion of future development of electric vehicles industry is put forward in the paper.

Key words： Pure electric bus power battery leasing mode operation price

Received: 26 December 2013 Published: 27 June 2014

PACS:	TM911
	U469.72

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	Articles by authors
	Sun Bingxiang
	He Tingting
	Niu Junlong
	Zhang Weige
	Jiang Jiuchun
	Tony Yip

Cite this article:

Sun Bingxiang,He Tingting,Niu Junlong等. The Operational Cost Evaluation and Prognosis of Pure Electric Bus Based on Battery Swap and Leasing Mode[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2014, 29(4): 316-322.

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http://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/EN/ OR http://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/EN/Y2014/V29/I4/316

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