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| Simulation Research on Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Policies Based on Demand-Side Response of System Dynamics |
| Li Lu1,2, Zhu Zeliang1, Bi Guihong1, Chen Shilong1, Lai Junsheng2 |
1. Faculty of Electrical Engineering Kunming University of Science and Technology Kunming 650500 China;
2. College of Engineering, Design and Physical Sciences Brunel university of London London UB8 3PH UK |
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Abstract Most of the energy conservation and emission reduction policies in the electricity market focus on the supply side, with less attention paid to the demand side. There is a lack of collaborative research between demand-side energy consumption rights policies and other energy conservation and emission reduction policies. In response to this phenomenon, this paper takes the demand-side energy consumption rights market as the main research object, constructs a systematic dynamic model based on the energy consumption rights market, carbon market and green certificate market, and simulates and predicts the future price trends of each market and the impact of multi-policy market collaboration under different scenarios.
Firstly, based on the coupling mechanism of the energy consumption rights market, the carbon market and the green certificate market, the coupling models of the three markets are established through the system dynamics method. Since the system dynamics method has significant advantages in simulating nonlinear correlations, long-term dynamic feedback loops and multi-policy coupling systems, it is suitable for the study of policy synergy effects in complex market systems. Secondly, energy consumption rights and carbon emission rights conduct dual assessment on energy-consuming enterprises. The two systems have overlapping parts and can be quantified mutually. Therefore, this paper establishes a dynamic dual-rights swap mechanism. The swap ratio is updated in real time according to the energy consumption rights price and carbon price. The trading subjects choose the market with the best cost for trading under the constraint of the swap upper limit. At the same time, considering the consumption responsibility of energy-consuming entities, the existing policy green certificate offset mechanism and the autonomous excess consumption mechanism are introduced. Finally, the results are obtained by analyzing the simulation examples in different scenarios. Under certain conditions, the coordinated operation of multiple policies and markets has a significant promoting effect on enterprises to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction.
The research concludes that: (1) Multi-market synergy helps enterprises choose the ways to fulfill their obligations and encourages them to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction. (2) The influence of the multi-market coupling mechanism is not obvious in the early stage, but more significant in the middle and later stages. If the price of energy consumption rights was relatively stable in the early stage, but rose rapidly from 230 yuan per ton to 334 yuan per ton in the later stage; By comparing the trading volumes of the carbon market and the energy consumption rights market, it is found that the trading volume fluctuates greatly in the later stage, reflecting the tension of the supply and demand relationship. It is suggested that policies be introduced to guide the healthy development of market prices. (3) Adjusting the reduction rate of energy consumption intensity and carbon emission intensity in the early stage can effectively increase the carbon sequestration capacity of enterprises. In the later stage, it is necessary to pay close attention to the intensity of the green electricity price subsidy policy, which has a more significant impact on carbon reduction. (4) The green certificate offset and excess consumption mechanism effectively promotes the reduction of consumption costs and energy consumption rights transaction costs for energy-consuming enterprises. (5) Excessive consumption of green electricity is influenced by factors such as green electricity prices and green certificate prices. Among them, the adjustment of the benchmark price of green electricity will seriously affect the electricity purchase cost of enterprises.
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Received: 27 March 2025
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2026, Vol. 41 
