基于空间相关法的风电场风速多步预测模型

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Abstract Accurate wind speed forecasting is necessary for evaluating the safety and economy of the large scale wind farm integration. In this paper,a new multi-step ahead wind speed forecasting model is presented based on spatial correlation and support vector machine (SVM) method. First,a wind direction oriented spatial correlation model is established,of which the optimized input vectors are determined by correlation coefficient. Then in order to eliminate the influence of variable wind direction,SVM method is applied to combine with the former spatial correlation model based on an accurate analysis of how forecast error depends on wind direction. The calculation results,which are obtained by measured data from a wind farm,indicate that the proposed spatial-SVM model has a better performance in forecasting accuracy comparing to the basic SVM model and other classical forecasting models.

Key words： Wind speed forecasting spatial correlation support vector machine(SVM) hybrid model

Received: 10 September 2012 Published: 11 December 2013

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TM614

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	Articles by authors
	Chen Niya
	Qian Zheng
	Meng Xiaofeng
	Meng Kaifeng

Cite this article:

Chen Niya,Qian Zheng,Meng Xiaofeng等. Multi-step Ahead Wind Speed Forecasting Model Based on Spatial Correlation and Support Vector Machine[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2013, 28(5): 15-21.

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http://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/EN/ OR http://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/EN/Y2013/V28/I5/15

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