基于临界慢化理论的电力系统自组织临界影响因素阈值计算方法

doi:10.19595/j.cnki.1000-6753.tces.180298

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摘要众多复杂系统在临界相变的临界点附近存在临界慢化现象。针对目前大多数理论确定电力系统自组织临界点的算法复杂、计算时间长或无法提供实际应用中最为关心的判别“阈值”信息的现状,将临界慢化理论用于确定电力系统自组织临界点,并基于Mann-Kendall检验方法确定自组织临界影响因素的临界阈值,方法简单、易于实现。CEPRI 36节点系统和甘肃酒泉实例系统的仿真分析结果与滑动T-检验、负荷损失柱状图、幂律尾分布K-S检验证明了以上计算方法的正确性和高效性,从而可为实时预防电力系统大停电并提前做出针对性的预防控制提供理论基础和技术依据。

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	蔡万通
	刘文颖
	王方雨
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	药炜

关键词 ：临界相变, 临界慢化, 自组织临界, Mann-Kendall检验, K-S检验

Abstract：The phenomenon of critical slowing down near the critical point of critical phase transformation was common in many complex systems. Currently the algorithms to get the power system’s self-organized critical point was complicated or could not compute the critical value of related factors, which was concerned most in the application. Therefore critical slowing down theory was applied to seek the self-organized critical point in this article. And further Mann-Kendall test was used to compute the critical value of power system’s self-organized critical factors. This method is easy to implement and verified available and efficiency on CEPRI 36 bus system and Jiuquan area in Gansu power grid by simulating and K-S test,slide T-test. And this method can provide theoretical and technical basis for the prevention and control of large-scale blackouts.

Key words： Critical phase transformation critical slowing down theory self-organized critical Mann-Kendall test K-S test

收稿日期: 2018-03-05 出版日期: 2019-03-21

PACS:

TM315

基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目（51377053）、“十一五”国家科技支撑计划项目（2015BAA01B04）和国家电网公司项目（52272216002D）资助

作者简介: 刘文颖,女,1955年生,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为电力系统分析与控制、新能源电力系统调度运行。E-mail：liuwenyingls@sina.com

引用本文:

蔡万通,刘文颖,王方雨,王维洲,药炜. 基于临界慢化理论的电力系统自组织临界影响因素阈值计算方法[J]. 电工技术学报, 2019, 34(5): 1068-1077. Cai Wantong, Liu Wenying, Wang Fangyu, Wang Weizhou, Yao Wei. Computing Method of the Critical Value of Power System’s Self-Organized Critical Factors Based on Critical Slowing Down Theory. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2019, 34(5): 1068-1077.

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通信作者:蔡万通, 男,1990年生,博士研究生,研究方向为新能源电力系统规划与运行控制.E-mail:caiwt2@csg.cn