基于灰色模型和Kalman平滑器的多母线短期负荷预测

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Abstract A short-term bus load forecasting method based on grey model and Kalman smoother is proposed. The weekly component of the load of each bus is subtracted and the grey model is constructed. The system load is forecasted. Then based on the grey model, a linear discrete random model is formed. The bus load cumulative series are the states and the system load cumulative series is the observation. The Kalman smoother is utilized to compute the optimal estimate of the bus load cumulative series. The forecast of bus load is the sum of the weekly component and the result of successive subtracting of the cumulative series. The Kalman smoother uses the system load forecasting result to adjust bus load forecasts and reduces the errors. The validity of the method is verified by simulation in a practical system.

Key words： Load forecasting grey model Kalman smoother bus load forecasting

Received: 26 December 2008 Published: 12 December 2014

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TM715

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	Wei Shaoyan
	Wu Junyong

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Wei Shaoyan,Wu Junyong. Short-Term Bus Load Forecasting Based on Grey Model and Kalman Smoother[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2010, 25(2): 158-162.

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http://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/EN/ OR http://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/EN/Y2010/V25/I2/158

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