基于区间估计的风电出力多场景下静态电压安全域研究

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Abstract The traditional Static voltage stability region(SVSR) is constructed by figuring out voltage critical points with continuous flow method under certain load increasing modes. And less consideration was taken on the influence of wind randomness to SVSR. This paper presents a novel method to establish wind power output scene, which is used in calculating the level of wind power output in greater probability and the boundaries of SVSR. On the basis of characteristics of Weibull distribution, This method can use maximum likelihood estimation of wind speed and Fisher information matrix to complete parameters’ interval estimation, including shape parameter and scale parameter, with satisfying confidence level α. Then according to the relationship between Gamma function and Weibull distribution k-th moment, this method can calculate approximate range of wind speed expectations. Furthermore, find out wind power output level and even the boundaries of SVSR in critical cut-set power space, which has the capacity of meeting most wind disturbance based on upper and lower limits of output level range. Finally, take the IEEE39 bus system for instance to prove the feasibility and effectiveness of the new method.

Key words： Distribution parameter interval estimation wind power scenario cut-set power space SVSR

Received: 22 July 2014 Published: 13 April 2015

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TM614

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	Liu Wenying
	Xu Peng
	Zhao Zilan
	Liu Fuchao
	Xu Yuanyuan

Cite this article:

Liu Wenying,Xu Peng,Zhao Zilan等. A Research of Static Voltage Stability Region in Wind Power Scenario Based on Interval Estimation[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2015, 30(3): 172-178.

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http://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/EN/ OR http://dgjsxb.ces-transaction.com/EN/Y2015/V30/I3/172

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