Abstract:In the basis of self-organized criticality (SOC) and the fractal theory, analysis and research the time-series data that observed from the recent years Chinese blackout. Discuss the fractal characteristics of fractal dimension of the Chinese blackout size distribution, establish a model about the frequency and loss load of the blackout, deduce a simple prediction function.
项胜, 何怡刚, 吴可汗. 基于分形理论的国内大停电分析[J]. 电工技术学报, 2013, 28(2增): 367-371.
Xiang Sheng, He Yigang, Wu Kehan. Blackout Analysis of Domestic Power Based on Fractal Theory. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2013, 28(2增): 367-371.
[1] 甘德强, 胡江溢, 韩祯祥. 2003年国际若干停电事故思考[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2004, 28(3): 1-4. Gan Deqiang, Hu Jiangyi, Han Zhenxiang. After the 2003 blackouts across everal continentals[J]. 2004, 28(3): 1-4 [2] 胡学浩. 美加联合电网大面积停电事故的反思和启示[J]. 电网技术, 2003, 27(9): T2-T6. Hu Xuehao. The reflection and inspiration of the the large area blackout of power grid in the USA and Canada. [3] 屈靖, 郭剑波. “九五” 期间我国电网事故统计分析[J]. 电网技术, 2004, 28(21): 60-62. Qu Jing, Guo Jianbo.Statistics and analysis of faults in main domestic power systems from 1996 to 2000[J]. Power System Technology, 2004, 28(21): 60-62 [4] Carreras B A, Newman De, Dobson I, et al. Evidence for self organized criticality in electric power system blackouts[J]. IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems, 2004, 51(9): 705-709. [5] Esposti F, Signorini M G, Cerutti S. Neuronal networks and self-organized criticality: the rising of long-term memory in neuronal ensembles[C]. 2009.NER ’09.4th International IEEE/EMBS Conference on Neural Engineering, 2009: 538-540. [6] Bak P, Chen K. Self-organized criticality[J]. Scientific American, 1991, 264(1): 26-33. [7] Kumar S. Public key cryptographic system using mandelbrot sets[C].IEEE Military Communications Conference, 2006: 1-5. [8] 吴运兵. 分形理论在计算机图形设计中的研究与应用[D]. 西安: 西安科技大学, 2004. [9] Dobaon I, Carreras B A, Lynch V E, et al. An initial model for complex dynamics in electric power system blackouts[C]. Proceedings of yhe 34th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Maui, Hawaii, 2001, 2: 710-718. [10] Chen J, Thorp J S, Parashar M. Analysis of electric power system disturbance data[C]. Proceedings of 34th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Maui, Hawaii, 2001, 52: 738-744. [11] Carreras B A, Newman DE, Dobson I, et al. Initial evidence for self-organized criticality in electric power blackouts[C]. Proceedings of 33rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Maui, Hawaii, 2000, 102: 1733-1740. [12] 于群, 郭剑波. 中国电网停电事故统计与自组织临界性特征[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2006, 30(2): 16-20. Yu Qun, Guo Jianbo. Statistics and selforganized criti-cality characters of blackouts in China electric power system[J]. Automation of Electric Power System, 2006, 30(2): 16-20.