基于系统动力学的需求侧响应节能减排政策模拟研究

doi:10.19595/j.cnki.1000-6753.tces.250494

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摘要

在实现“双碳”与“双控”目标过程中,用能权制度是需求侧提高节能减排效率的主要手段。为了研究用能权制度与其他节能减排政策之间的协同关系,本文以需求侧用能权市场为主要研究对象,以高耗能、高排放的钢铁行业为主体,构建了基于用能权市场、碳排放权市场和绿色证书市场的系统动力学模型。由于用能权市场和碳市场对同一责任主体存在双重考核的影响,因此,该文提出动态双权互换机制,根据用能权价格和碳价实时更新互换比例,用能企业基于成本最优化原则在互换上限内自主选择用能权和碳排放权的交易量;同时引入绿色证书抵消机制和自主超额消纳机制,分析在不同政策措施情景下对系统的影响。研究结果表明,有效的政策组合和机制引入能够有效降低用能企业的碳排放、能耗和消纳成本,超额完成消纳目标,但在政策实施的前期阶段多市场耦合机制对整个系统所展现出的效果不明显,中后期影响较为显著。同时建议针对不同耗能级别的主体灵活调整用能权初始额度和互换比例上限,同时考虑节能减排效果和企业成本的平衡问题,并加强市场监管和激励制度。

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关键词 ：用能权交易市场, 系统动力学, 节能减排, 需求侧, 绿证市场

Abstract：

Most of the energy conservation and emission reduction policies in the electricity market focus on the supply side, with less attention paid to the demand side. There is a lack of collaborative research between demand-side energy consumption rights policies and other energy conservation and emission reduction policies. In response to this phenomenon, this paper takes the demand-side energy consumption rights market as the main research object, constructs a systematic dynamic model based on the energy consumption rights market, carbon market and green certificate market, and simulates and predicts the future price trends of each market and the impact of multi-policy market collaboration under different scenarios.
Firstly, based on the coupling mechanism of the energy consumption rights market, the carbon market and the green certificate market, the coupling models of the three markets are established through the system dynamics method. Since the system dynamics method has significant advantages in simulating nonlinear correlations, long-term dynamic feedback loops and multi-policy coupling systems, it is suitable for the study of policy synergy effects in complex market systems. Secondly, energy consumption rights and carbon emission rights conduct dual assessment on energy-consuming enterprises. The two systems have overlapping parts and can be quantified mutually. Therefore, this paper establishes a dynamic dual-rights swap mechanism. The swap ratio is updated in real time according to the energy consumption rights price and carbon price. The trading subjects choose the market with the best cost for trading under the constraint of the swap upper limit. At the same time, considering the consumption responsibility of energy-consuming entities, the existing policy green certificate offset mechanism and the autonomous excess consumption mechanism are introduced. Finally, the results are obtained by analyzing the simulation examples in different scenarios. Under certain conditions, the coordinated operation of multiple policies and markets has a significant promoting effect on enterprises to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction.
The research concludes that: (1) Multi-market synergy helps enterprises choose the ways to fulfill their obligations and encourages them to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction. (2) The influence of the multi-market coupling mechanism is not obvious in the early stage, but more significant in the middle and later stages. If the price of energy consumption rights was relatively stable in the early stage, but rose rapidly from 230 yuan per ton to 334 yuan per ton in the later stage; By comparing the trading volumes of the carbon market and the energy consumption rights market, it is found that the trading volume fluctuates greatly in the later stage, reflecting the tension of the supply and demand relationship. It is suggested that policies be introduced to guide the healthy development of market prices. (3) Adjusting the reduction rate of energy consumption intensity and carbon emission intensity in the early stage can effectively increase the carbon sequestration capacity of enterprises. In the later stage, it is necessary to pay close attention to the intensity of the green electricity price subsidy policy, which has a more significant impact on carbon reduction. (4) The green certificate offset and excess consumption mechanism effectively promotes the reduction of consumption costs and energy consumption rights transaction costs for energy-consuming enterprises. (5) Excessive consumption of green electricity is influenced by factors such as green electricity prices and green certificate prices. Among them, the adjustment of the benchmark price of green electricity will seriously affect the electricity purchase cost of enterprises.

Key words： Trading markets with energy rights system dynamics energy saving and emission reduction demand side green certificate market

收稿日期: 2025-03-27

PACS:

TK01+8

基金资助:

国家重点研发计划项目资助（2022YFB2703500）

通讯作者: 毕贵红男,1968年生,博士,教授,硕士生导师,研究方向为新能源系统的建模、优化和智能数据分析。E-mail：KM_BGH@163.com

作者简介: 李璐女,1976年生,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向为电力市场、可再生能源政策、能源经济。E-mail：103586871@qq.com

引用本文:

李璐, 朱泽良, 毕贵红, 陈仕龙, 赖俊升. 基于系统动力学的需求侧响应节能减排政策模拟研究[J]. 电工技术学报, 0, (): 258105-258105. Li Lu, Zhu Zeliang, Bi Guihong, Chen Shilong, Lai Junsheng. Simulation Research on Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Policies Based on Demand-side Response of System Dynamics. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 0, (): 258105-258105.

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